Journal : People's Daily (Chinese) Date : Author : Zou Song Page No. : 22
URL : NA

Few days ago, the Indian government released the economic data of second quarter of this year, which showcased a 7% increase compared with the corresponding period last year. But the growth rate was lower than that in the last quarter, which is 7.5%. The slowing growth rate is out of expectation to the world of economy. Analysts pointed out that the slowing growth rate of India reflected the instability of the adjusting of its domestic economic structure as the FDI held good prospects on the Indian market. India’s service industry, the former pillar of India’s economy, is now holding it back. The harmonious development of the national economy is still a thorny issue standing in front of the Indian government.

 

Statistics show that India’s GDP in the second quarter is 27.13 trillion Rs, which increased by 7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The growth rate of the output value of major industries slowed: manufacturing decreased by 1.2% and agriculture slowed by 0.7%. Moreover, the service industry, which in earlier times accounts for 60% of India’s GDP, has been running not just as one wishes. Its strength to attract FDI shrunk by more than 14%. Economic Times of India reported: “Indian government has spent 36% of its capital budget in the first four months of the current fiscal year. But the elevating effect on all industries is not evident.”

 

In contrast to the slowing growth rate of the economy, the FDI in the second quarter increased by 32%, a large margin compared to the last quarter. The largest contributor is still the hardware and software industry. However, for industrial sectors such as architecture, communication, pharmacy, metallurgical industry, etc., the growth rate of FDI is slowing, especially in service sector with products of high added value such as banks, insurance, outsourcing, research and development, etc.

 

“There’s a lot of emphasis that’s being put on the opportunities that lie ahead for India and not too much attention is being paid to the challenges that remain today,” said JyotinderKaur, principal economist, HDFC Bank, “more action is needed rather than excessive optimism on the ground if India wants to seize opportunities to grow its economy.”

 

Indian Express analyzed that the business environment in India remained to be improved. Otherwise, foreign investment could shrink. Economic Times of India pointed out that the government failed to get two key economic reform measures passed. This includes the land acquisition amendment and legislation related to the goods and service tax. The foiled reform symbolized the failure of the government’s attempts to revitalize the domestic market and drive domestic demand.

 

It is widely believed in India that the central bank should again lower the interest rate by 50 points from the current 7.25% before the end of the year, which may help drive the domestic consumer market. The Indian Rupee remained relatively stable in the earlier wave of devaluation of global currency. The exchange rate to US dollar only slid by 2%. Some Indian economists analyzed that the Indian central bank was too cautious. The Indian Rupee should be further devalued to promote the export, especially the export of software, pharmacy, leather, etc., so that Indian could gain higher recognition of “Make in India”in the world.

 

印度服务业拖经济增长后腿

印度政府不久前公布二季度经济数据,印度经济较去年同期增长7%,增幅低于前一季度的7.5%。印度经济增幅放缓的态势出乎国际经济界的预料,有分析人士指出,在外国直接投资明显看好印度市场的背景下,印度经济增速放缓体现出印度国内经济结构调整期的不稳定性。此前长期作为印度经济支柱产业的服务业如今拖了后腿,经济均衡发展仍是摆在印度政府面前的一道难题。

数据显示,印度二季度国内生产总值为27.13万亿卢比(1卢比约合0.1元人民币),同比增长7%。几大产业产值增幅均放缓,制造业较去年同期增幅放缓1.2%,农业增幅放缓0.7%。而此前占印度国内生产总值近60%的服务业表现更不尽如人意,其在吸引外国直接投资力度上下滑超过14%。印度《经济时报》称,“印度政府在本财年前4个月(4月至7月)已花出了年度预算的36%,但其对各产业的拉升作用并不明显。”

与经济增速放缓形成鲜明对照的是,印度二季度外国直接投资大幅增长,增长率较前一季度上升32%,其中贡献最大的仍是电脑软硬件产业。而在建筑、通信、医药以及冶金等工业领域,外国直接投资增幅都在放缓,特别是在银行、保险、外包以及研发等附加值较高的服务业领域,外国直接投资的热情明显降低。

“倾注于印度未来机会的热情太多,而投放到印度目前面对的挑战的关注太少”,印度第四大银行HDFC首席经济学家乔汀德·卡尔分析认为,“如果印度经济想抓住机会,应以更多的改革行动代替过分乐观的情绪”。

《印度快报》分析称,印度国内经商环境仍有待改善,否则外商投资热情将降温。印度《经济时报》指出,印度本届政府迄今为止最重大的两项经济改革措施均受挫,《土地法》改革草案试行已宣告结束,商品与服务税统一税制的方案也几近泡汤。此番改革受挫意味着印度政府盘活国内市场,拉动内需的尝试再度折戟。

目前印度经济界普遍认为,印度央行有必要在年底之前再度下调利率,在目前7.25%的基础上下调50个基点,才有助于拉动国内消费市场。印度卢比在此前一轮全球性货币贬值大潮中相对稳定,对美元汇率只下滑了2%。有印度经济学者称,印度央行过于谨慎,印度卢比应进一步贬值以促进印度产品出口,特别是软件、医药、皮革等印度优势出口领域应进一步扩大全球市场份额,从而提高“印度制造”的国际认可度。

(本报新德里9月14日电)

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