2015-12-26 10:51:00 来源：中国新闻网 责任编辑：syu 2015-12-26 10:51:00 Source: China News Network, Editor: syu
Core tip: Boris Volkhonsky, deputy director of the Center for Asia and the Middle East Studies at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the Prime Minister of India’s visit to Pakistan is a “continuation of the general trend of India’s foreign policy”.
China News Service website, 26th December 2015. According to a report filed by the Russian satellite network, experts are of the opinion that India and Pakistan are interested in further development of bilateral relations, but the prospects for the establishment of stable relations between New Delhi and Islamabad are still not very clear.
According to the report, the Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, paid a surprise visit to the Pakistani city of Lahore on the 25th and was accorded a warm and enthusiastic welcome by the Pakistani Prime Minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif. This is the first time an Indian leader has visited Pakistan since 2004.
Boris Volkhonsky, deputy director of the Center for Asia and the Middle East Studies at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, holds the opinion that the Prime Minister of India’s visit to Pakistan is a “continuation of the general trend of India’s foreign policy”.
He pointed out: “One of the first open announcements that Modi made when he took over as the Prime Minister was that he would give priority to the development of friendly relations with the neighboring countries.”
Experts stress that the most acute and incisive problem between New Delhi and Islamabad is Kashmir and this issue is far from being resolved. “That said, what is important for India and Pakistan today is to bring about an improvement in relations by finding common areas of benefit, rather than according priority to controversial and decisive issues.” Volkhonsky believes that the two countries have “multiple” areas of common interest.
Volkhonsky pointed out: “As far as I know, Modi will look at Afghanistan from Pakistan. As it seems apparent, the most pressing problem on the India’s foreign policy plate will be brought to the table. India’s threat from terrorism emanaates from Afghanistan and is one of her biggest headaches. Moreover, Pakistan has a strong lever of influence on the situation in Afghanistan.”
Prof. Luniov of the Department of Oriental Studies, University of International Relations in Moscow pointed out: “In the span of time since partition of (British) India into two countries to the current day, a situation of thaw in the bilateral relations have existed for a very short period; a frozen state of relations has existed for most of the time.”
Experts pointed out that the party that has real influence in Pakistan is not the country’s government, but the army. This factor definitely needs to be taken into account in the development of relations between the two countries.
2015-12-26 10:51:00 来源：中国新闻网 责任编辑：syu
【延伸阅读】印度总理莫迪突访巴基斯坦 将与巴总理谢里夫会面[Extended reading] Indian Prime Minister Modi’s surprise visit to Pakistan; will meet with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif
资料图：印度总理莫迪 Photo: Prime Minister of India, Mr. Narendra Modi
China News Service website, 25th December 2015. In a comprehensive report, Pakistani and Indian authorities confirmed on 25th December (at the local time) that the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi will visit Pakistan on the same day and the two Prime Ministers will meet and hold discussions.
Before this official disclosure, Mr. Modi had made an announcement on social networking sites and had said that he will stop by in Pakistan, on his way back from Afghanistan to India, and will meet with Prime Minister Sharif in the afternoon of the 25th.
The news that Prime Minister Modi will meet with Mr. Sharif has been confirmed by the Indian and the Pakistani local authorities. The foreign ministry in Pakistan said that it was working out the specific details of the meeting between the leaders of the two countries.
This is the first visit of Mr. Modi to Pakistan since he took over as the Prime Minister of India. Our analyst points out that this meeting of the leaders comes at a time when India and Pakistan have agreed to restart the official dialogue process and that this meeting will give impetus to the efforts in the normalization of relations between the two countries.
2015-12-26 10:51:00 来源：中国新闻网 责任编辑：syu
【延伸阅读】澳门日报：印度、巴基斯坦紧张关系加快解冻[Extended reading] Macao Daily: Speeding up the thaw in the tense relations between India and Pakistan
视频：巴基斯坦：印度外长三年来首访巴基斯塔 来源：央视新闻 Video: Pakistan: India’s External Affairs Minister visiting Pakistan for the first time in three years. Source: CCTV news
China News Service website, 18th December 2015. An editorial in the Macao Daily on 18th December said that India and Pakistan are in the process of accelerating reconciliation and have started deliberations on the mechanism for resumption of the full comprehensive dialogue. Earlier, the two sides had announced resumption of Foreign Minister level dialogues and visits. India and Pakistan have agreed that the future comprehensive dialogue will have no restrictions and obstacles and that all issues like territorial disputes and anti-terrorism issues can be a part of the dialogue and discussions. These measures indicate the beginning of a thaw in the tense relations between these two nuclear weapon armed states who share a common border and have, in the past, fought three large-scale wars.
文章摘编如下：Excerpts from the article are as follows:
印度外交部长苏什玛 • 斯瓦拉杰本月9日率代表团前往伊斯兰堡与巴基斯坦外交事务与国家安全顾问萨尔塔杰 • 阿齐兹会面。这是印度外长三年来首次访问这一邻国。经过一整天的会议，双方在当天近午夜时发表联合声明，“双方同意展开全面双边对话，并由双方外交部长直接领导安排会议。”
On the 9th of this month, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj of India led a delegation to Islamabad and held discussions with Mr. Sartaj Aziz, the Pakistani Foreign Affairs and National Security Adviser. This trip was the first visit by an Indian Foreign Minister to this neighboring country in three years. After a fully packed day of meetings and deliberations, the two sides issued a joint statement at the close of the day just before midnight. “Both sides agree to carry out a comprehensive bilateral dialogue and the meetings will be arranged and directly led by the Foreign Affairs Ministers of the two countries.”
The dialogue between the two sides will include topics as diverse as peace and security, establishment of mutual trust, economic and commercial cooperation, joint counter- terrorist operations, anti- narcotics operations, people to people level exchanges, etc. Both sides consensually agreed that the talks held on the 6th of this month between the National Security Advisers of the two countries at Bangkok, Thailand, on counter-terrorism and various other security aspects were successful. The two sides resolved to continue to be committed to the fight against terrorism.
The Indian side also accepted to bring the Mumbai terrorist attack case to a preliminary conclusion at the earliest possible date. In November 2008, Mumbai, India suffered a series of terrorist attacks. The Indian side accused the murderers of coming from Pakistan and effectively stalled the Indo-Pak comprehensive peace process dialogue mechanism that had been in progress for many years. Starting 2010, India and Pakistan partly resumed bilateral talks. In March 2011, the Prime Ministers of the two countries watched a Cricket World Cup match together and the Foreign Ministers of the two countries met in July. At the meeting they heralded the dawn of new relations in the coming new era and in November, Pakistan extended the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to India. In April 2012, President Zardari of Pakistan made a private visit to India and used the opportunity to meet with Prime Minister Singh. However the sweet dreams were short-lived, and in August this year, the two sides started exchanging fire along the Kashmir border which led to the National Security Adviser level talks to be canceled.
In recent times, bilateral relations seem to be on a path of improvement once again. On 6th, the senior National Security Officers and Deputy Foreign Ministers of India and Pakistan convened a bilateral national security conference and discussed Kashmir, anti terrorism operations, etc. This meeting proved to be the first “ice breaking” meeting after the deterioration in bilateral relations in August. The joint statement points out that, in this meeting in Bangkok, the two sides focused on discussions related to security, terrorism and the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. The discussions also included maintenance of peace along the line of control and other related topics. This meeting was arranged after the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi and his Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met at the Climate Summit in Paris.
Even though India and Pakistan have decided to restart a full comprehensive dialogue, the intentions of the respective governments were regarded with suspicion in their own countries. Following the assurance by Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif that the bilateral talks contained “no secrets”, India’s External Affairs Ministry also stressed that the dialogue will help in maintenance of peace. External Affairs Minister Swaraj pointed out in her speech to the Indian Parliament that resumption of dialogue between Indian and Pakistan is based on mutual trust. Swaraj emphasized that the goal of her visit to Pakistan and resumption of the stalled comprehensive dialogue between the two countries was to resolve the issues of common concerns through dialogue and by removing the obstacles on the path of constructive relationship.
Swaraj said that India has already held discussions with Pakistan on the existence of terrorist groups in the Kashmir region because “war is not an option”. She emphasized the fact that both India and Pakistan have decided to resolve the issue of terrorism through dialogue and that dialogue is the only way to eliminate the shadow of terrorism.
Relations between India and Pakistan are the most crucial in South Asia and have also been the most difficult to resolve. The two countries have fought three wars in 1948, 1965 and in 1971 over the issue of sovereignty of the Kashmir region. In the summer of 1999, a military conflict broke out again in Kashmir between the two sides. Fortunately, the leaders of the two countries exercised restraint and there was no further deterioration in the conflict.
If India and Pakistan do not hold frank and candid discussions to resolve the mutual points of contention, it will be very difficult to put an end to the Kashmir conflict. Since the establishment of the government of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, the country has been strongly advocating improvement of relations between Pakistan and India for faster economic development and to create an environment of peace. The Indian side also hopes to focus on economic development and the two countries are expected to make more efforts to ease tensions in the future.
There is no doubt that warming relations between the two sides will help stabilise the situation in South Asia and even Central Asia, but relations need to witness far greater improvement if the two countries are to overcome some of the more difficult barriers. For instance, when the governments of the two countries had just announced resumption of high-level peace talks, the Pakistani military immediately announced the successful test firing of a ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. It is but obvious that the complex disputes between India and Pakistan that have festered over a long period of time cannot be resolved over one or two bilateral dialogues. However, there is reason to believe that a good atmosphere and mutual understanding between the neighbors will help in achieving peace in South Asia.