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专家:印度巴基斯坦有意发展关系 但前景不明朗

 

2015-12-26 10:51:00 来源:中国新闻网 责任编辑:syu 2015-12-26 10:51:00 Source: China News Network, Editor: syu

核心提示:俄罗斯战略研究所亚洲国家和中东研究中心副主任沃尔孔斯基认为,印度总理访问巴基斯坦是“延续了其外交政策的总趋势”。

Core tip: Boris Volkhonsky, deputy director of the Center for Asia and the Middle East Studies at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the Prime Minister of India’s visit to Pakistan is a “continuation of the general trend of India’s foreign policy”.

中新网12月26日电 据俄罗斯卫星网报道,专家认为,印度和巴基斯坦有意发展双边关系,但是新德里和伊斯兰堡之间建立稳定关系的前景并不明朗。

China News Service website, 26th December 2015. According to a report filed by the Russian satellite network, experts are of the opinion that India and Pakistan are interested in further development of bilateral relations, but the prospects for the establishment of stable relations between New Delhi and Islamabad are still not very clear.

据报道,印度总理莫迪25日突访巴基斯坦城市拉合尔,并受到巴方总理的热烈迎接,这是2004年以来印度领导人首次访问巴基斯坦。

According to the report, the Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, paid a surprise visit to the Pakistani city of Lahore on the 25th and was accorded a warm and enthusiastic welcome by the Pakistani Prime Minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif. This is the first time an Indian leader has visited Pakistan since 2004.

俄罗斯战略研究所亚洲国家和中东研究中心副主任沃尔孔斯基认为,印度总理访问巴基斯坦是“延续了其外交政策的总趋势”。

Boris Volkhonsky, deputy director of the Center for Asia and the Middle East Studies at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, holds the opinion that the Prime Minister of India’s visit to Pakistan is a “continuation of the general trend of India’s foreign policy”.

他指出:“莫迪在最开始担任总理时就公开表示他首先将发展与邻国的关系。”

He pointed out: “One of the first open announcements that Modi made when he took over as the Prime Minister was that he would give priority to the development of friendly relations with the neighboring countries.”

专家强调,新德里和伊斯兰堡之间最尖锐的问题是克什米尔,该问题远未解决,但是“现在对于印度和巴基斯坦,重要的是就可以找到共同点的问题发展关系,而不是把有争议的问题放在首要位置” 。沃尔孔斯基相信,两国有“非常多”的共同点。

Experts stress that the most acute and incisive problem between New Delhi and Islamabad is Kashmir and this issue is far from being resolved. “That said, what is important for India and Pakistan today is to bring about an improvement in relations by finding common areas of benefit, rather than according priority to controversial and decisive issues.” Volkhonsky believes that the two countries have “multiple” areas of common interest.

沃尔孔斯基指出:“据我所知,莫迪将从巴基斯坦前往阿富汗,看来,将就印度外交政策中最尖锐的问题进行对表。印度的恐怖主义威胁来自阿富汗,这是头痛的问题,而巴基斯坦拥有影响阿富汗局势的强力杠杆。”

Volkhonsky pointed out: “As far as I know, Modi will look at Afghanistan from Pakistan. As it seems apparent, the most pressing problem on the India’s foreign policy plate will be brought to the table. India’s threat from terrorism emanaates from Afghanistan and is one of her biggest headaches. Moreover, Pakistan has a strong lever of influence on the situation in Afghanistan.”

莫斯科国际关系学院东方学教研室教授卢尼奥夫指出:“两国分离之后至今的整段时间内,解冻的时期非常短,大部分时间处于冻结状态。”

Prof. Luniov of the Department of Oriental Studies, University of International Relations in Moscow pointed out: “In the span of time since partition of (British) India into two countries to the current day, a situation of thaw in the bilateral relations have existed for a very short period; a frozen state of relations has existed for most of the time.”

专家指出,对巴基斯坦有实际影响力的不是该国的政府,而是军队,两国之间在发展关系时应考虑到这一点。

Experts pointed out that the party that has real influence in Pakistan is not the country’s government, but the army. This factor definitely needs to be taken into account in the development of relations between the two countries.

专家:印度巴基斯坦有意发展关系 但前景不明朗(2)

2015-12-26 10:51:00 来源:中国新闻网 责任编辑:syu

核心提示:俄罗斯战略研究所亚洲国家和中东研究中心副主任沃尔孔斯基认为,印度总理访问巴基斯坦是“延续了其外交政策的总趋势”。

【延伸阅读】印度总理莫迪突访巴基斯坦 将与巴总理谢里夫会面

[Extended reading] Indian Prime Minister Modi’s surprise visit to Pakistan; will meet with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif

资料图:印度总理莫迪 Photo: Prime Minister of India, Mr. Narendra Modi

中新网12月25日电 综合报道,巴基斯坦与印度当局于当地时间25日证实,印度总理莫迪当天突访巴基斯坦,两国总理将进行会面。

China News Service website, 25th December 2015. In a comprehensive report, Pakistani and Indian authorities confirmed on 25th December (at the local time) that the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi will visit Pakistan on the same day and the two Prime Ministers will meet and hold discussions.

此前,莫迪在社交网站上公布消息称,他在从阿富汗返回印度途中,将经停巴基斯坦,并将在25日下午与巴总理谢里夫会面。

Before this official disclosure, Mr. Modi had made an announcement on social networking sites and had said that he will stop by in Pakistan, on his way back from Afghanistan to India, and will meet with Prime Minister Sharif in the afternoon of the 25th.

莫迪将与谢里夫会面的消息此后得到了印巴当局证实。巴基斯坦外交部方面称,正在研究两国领导人会面的细节。

The news that Prime Minister Modi will meet with Mr. Sharif has been confirmed by the Indian and the Pakistani local authorities. The foreign ministry in Pakistan said that it was working out the specific details of the meeting between the leaders of the two countries.

这是莫迪就任印度总理以来首次到访巴基斯坦。分析称,此次领导人会面正值巴印同意重启官方对话进程之际,将推动印巴关系正常化的努力。

This is the first visit of Mr. Modi to Pakistan since he took over as the Prime Minister of India. Our analyst points out that this meeting of the leaders comes at a time when India and Pakistan have agreed to restart the official dialogue process and that this meeting will give impetus to the efforts in the normalization of relations between the two countries.

 

专家:印度巴基斯坦有意发展关系 但前景不明朗(3)

2015-12-26 10:51:00 来源:中国新闻网 责任编辑:syu

核心提示:俄罗斯战略研究所亚洲国家和中东研究中心副主任沃尔孔斯基认为,印度总理访问巴基斯坦是“延续了其外交政策的总趋势”。

【延伸阅读】澳门日报:印度、巴基斯坦紧张关系加快解冻

[Extended reading] Macao Daily: Speeding up the thaw in the tense relations between India and Pakistan

视频:巴基斯坦:印度外长三年来首访巴基斯塔  来源:央视新闻  Video: Pakistan: India’s External Affairs Minister visiting Pakistan for the first time in three years.  Source: CCTV news

中新网12月18日电 澳门日报18日社论称,印度和巴基斯坦正加速和解,酝酿恢复全面对话的机制。双方较早时启动了外长级别访问的交流。印巴双方同意,未来全面对话将不设限制与障碍,领土争议、反恐问题都可以对话讨论。此举显示,这两个在过去打了三次大规模战争的核武邻国之间的紧张关系开始解冻。

China News Service website, 18th December 2015. An editorial in the Macao Daily on 18th December said that India and Pakistan are in the process of accelerating reconciliation and have started deliberations on the mechanism for resumption of the full comprehensive dialogue. Earlier, the two sides had announced resumption of Foreign Minister level dialogues and visits. India and Pakistan have agreed that the future comprehensive dialogue will have no restrictions and obstacles and that all issues like territorial disputes and anti-terrorism issues can be a part of the dialogue and discussions. These measures indicate the beginning of a thaw in the tense relations between these two nuclear weapon armed states who share a common border and have, in the past, fought three large-scale wars.

文章摘编如下:Excerpts from the article are as follows:

印度外交部长苏什玛 • 斯瓦拉杰本月9日率代表团前往伊斯兰堡与巴基斯坦外交事务与国家安全顾问萨尔塔杰 • 阿齐兹会面。这是印度外长三年来首次访问这一邻国。经过一整天的会议,双方在当天近午夜时发表联合声明,“双方同意展开全面双边对话,并由双方外交部长直接领导安排会议。”

On the 9th of this month, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj of India led a delegation to Islamabad and held discussions with Mr. Sartaj Aziz, the Pakistani Foreign Affairs and National Security Adviser. This trip was the first visit by an Indian Foreign Minister to this neighboring country in three years. After a fully packed day of meetings and deliberations, the two sides issued a joint statement at the close of the day just before midnight. “Both sides agree to carry out a comprehensive bilateral dialogue and the meetings will be arranged and directly led by the Foreign Affairs Ministers of the two countries.”

双方的对话将包括和平与安全、建立互信、经济和商业合作、共同反恐、反毒品、民间交流等议题。双方一致认为本月六日两国国家安全顾问在泰国曼谷举行的有关反恐和安全方面的会谈取得成功,表示将继续致力于打击恐怖主义。

The dialogue between the two sides will include topics as diverse as peace and security, establishment of mutual trust, economic and commercial cooperation, joint counter- terrorist operations, anti- narcotics operations, people to people level exchanges, etc. Both sides consensually agreed that the talks held on the 6th of this month between the National Security Advisers of the two countries at Bangkok, Thailand, on counter-terrorism and various other security aspects were successful. The two sides resolved to continue to be committed to the fight against terrorism.

印度方面还承诺将尽快对孟买恐怖袭击案件作出初步结论。2008年11月,印度孟买遭到连环恐怖袭击,印方指责凶手来自巴基斯坦,双方持续多年的全面和平进程对话机制中断。2010年以来,印巴两国恢复了部分双边会谈。2011年3月两国总理还一起观赏世界杯板球赛;7月间两国外长见面,表示将在新时代发展新关系;11月巴基斯坦给予印度贸易最惠国待遇。2012年4月,巴基斯坦总统扎尔达里以私人身份前往印度访问,并与辛格总理会面。不过,好景不常,今年8月双方在克什米尔边境交火,两国国家安全顾问级别会谈随即取消。

The Indian side also accepted to bring the Mumbai terrorist attack case to a preliminary conclusion at the earliest possible date. In November 2008, Mumbai, India suffered a series of terrorist attacks. The Indian side accused the murderers of coming from Pakistan and effectively stalled the Indo-Pak comprehensive peace process dialogue mechanism that had been in progress for many years. Starting 2010, India and Pakistan partly resumed bilateral talks. In March 2011, the Prime Ministers of the two countries watched a Cricket World Cup match together and the Foreign Ministers of the two countries met in July. At the meeting they heralded the dawn of new relations in the coming new era and in November, Pakistan extended the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to India. In April 2012, President Zardari of Pakistan made a private visit to India and used the opportunity to meet with Prime Minister Singh. However the sweet dreams were short-lived, and in August this year, the two sides started exchanging fire along the Kashmir border which led to the National Security Adviser level talks to be canceled.

近来,双方关系又似乎改善。印巴国安高层和副外长,6日在曼谷召开双边国安会议,讨论克什米尔与反恐等问题,成为双边关系8月恶化以来的首次“破冰”会议。联合声明指,双方在曼谷讨论安全、恐怖主义、查谟与克什米尔议题,及包括两国边境控制线的和平在内等其他议题。这次会议是在印度总理莫迪与巴基斯坦总理谢里夫于巴黎气候峰会会面后达成的。

In recent times, bilateral relations seem to be on a path of improvement once again. On 6th, the senior National Security Officers and Deputy Foreign Ministers of India and Pakistan convened a bilateral national security conference and discussed Kashmir, anti terrorism operations, etc. This meeting proved to be the first “ice breaking” meeting after the deterioration in bilateral relations in August. The joint statement points out that, in this meeting in Bangkok, the two sides focused on discussions related to security, terrorism and the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. The discussions also included maintenance of peace along the line of control and other related topics. This meeting was arranged after the Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi and his Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met at the Climate Summit in Paris.

虽然印巴已决定开启全面对话,但分别在自己国内遭到质疑。继巴基斯坦总理谢里夫强调双方会谈没有“秘密”后,印度外交部也强调对话有助和平。外长斯瓦拉杰在国会指出,印巴重启对话是基于彼此间的信任。斯瓦拉杰强调,她访问巴基斯坦并开启两国的全面对话,目标就是透过对话解决双方共同关切的问题,以移除建设性接触道路上的障碍。

Even though India and Pakistan have decided to restart a full comprehensive dialogue, the intentions of the respective governments were regarded with suspicion in their own countries. Following the assurance by Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif that the bilateral talks contained “no secrets”, India’s External Affairs Ministry also stressed that the dialogue will help in maintenance of peace. External Affairs Minister Swaraj pointed out in her speech to the Indian Parliament that  resumption of dialogue between Indian and Pakistan is based on mutual trust. Swaraj emphasized that the goal of her visit to Pakistan and resumption of the stalled comprehensive dialogue between the two countries was to resolve the issues of common concerns through dialogue and by removing the obstacles on the path of constructive relationship.

斯瓦拉杰表示,印度已经与巴基斯坦讨论存在于克什米尔地区的恐怖组织,因为“战争已不是选项”。斯瓦拉杰强调,印巴双方决定透过对话解决恐怖主义问题,这也是唯一消除恐怖主义阴影的方法。

Swaraj said that India has already held discussions with Pakistan on the existence of terrorist groups in the Kashmir region because “war is not an option”. She emphasized the fact that both India and Pakistan have decided to resolve the issue of terrorism through dialogue and that dialogue is the only way to eliminate the shadow of terrorism.

印巴关系一直是南亚最关键、也最难解决的问题。为了争夺克什米尔地区主权,两国曾在1948年、1965年、1971年三度开战。1999年夏天,双方又在克什米尔地区爆发一次军事冲突,幸好双方领导人克制而未使冲突进一步恶化。

Relations between India and Pakistan are the most crucial in South Asia and have also been the most difficult to resolve. The two countries have fought three wars in 1948, 1965 and in 1971 over the issue of sovereignty of the Kashmir region. In the summer of 1999, a military conflict broke out again in Kashmir between the two sides. Fortunately, the leaders of the two countries exercised restraint and there was no further deterioration in the conflict.

印巴两国如果不就解决双方争议举行坦诚的会谈,克什米尔地区的冲突恐难终结。巴基斯坦谢里夫政府成立以来一直主张改善巴印关系,为发展经济创造和平环境;印度方面也希望将更多精力放在发展经济上,未来两国应该会在缓和紧张局势方面付出更多努力。

If India and Pakistan do not hold frank and candid discussions to resolve the mutual points of contention, it will be very difficult to put an end to the Kashmir conflict. Since the establishment of the government of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, the country has been strongly advocating improvement of relations between Pakistan and India for faster economic development and to create an environment of peace. The Indian side also hopes to focus on economic development and the two countries are expected to make more efforts to ease tensions in the future.

双方关系的缓和,无疑有助南亚甚至中亚局势的稳定,但双方关系要有较大幅度的改善仍需克服一些障碍,譬如两国政府刚宣布重启高层和平谈判,巴军方随即宣布成功试射可携带核弹头的弹道导弹。印巴两国之间长期以来的复杂争端,显然不可能仅靠一两次对话就能冰释。但是,人们有理由相信:良好的氛围和相互的理解有助实现南亚地区的和平。

There is no doubt that warming relations between the two sides will help stabilise the situation in South Asia and even Central Asia, but relations need to witness far greater improvement if the two countries are to overcome some of the more difficult barriers. For instance, when the governments of the two countries had just announced resumption of high-level peace talks, the Pakistani military immediately announced the successful test firing of a ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. It is but obvious that the complex disputes between India and Pakistan that have festered over a long period of time cannot be resolved over one or two bilateral dialogues. However, there is reason to believe that a good atmosphere and mutual understanding between the neighbors will help in achieving peace in South Asia.

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