Journal : China News Weekly Date : Author : NA Page No. : NA
URL : http://editor.inewsweek.cn/detail-2616.html

“莫迪旋风”还能刮多久?

作者:《中国新闻周刊》林民旺

Author: Lin Minwang, columnist of China News Weekly and professor in China University of Foreign Affairs

 

 

11月8日,印度比哈尔邦立法院选举结果揭晓。在243个议席中,地方性大党人民党联合派(JDU)及其政治联盟获得了179席,赢得了决定性胜利。而莫迪总理所在的印度人民党(BJP)及其联盟仅获得59席。

On November 8th of 2015, the result of Bihar Legislative Assembly election was announced. JDU (Janata Dal United), a local regional party, won 179 out of the total 243 seats together with its alliances, ensuring the decisive victory. On the other hand, BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), the ruling party led by Prime Minister Modi, only won 59 seats together with its alliances.

作为印度人口过亿的第三大邦,比哈尔邦历来是印度选举中的“票仓”,因而此次选情也成为分析家们观察印度政治的风向标之一。对莫迪而言,比哈尔的选举是对他执政17个月的一次“大检阅”,选举结果具有标志性的意义。事实是,相较于一年多前的印度选情而言,印度选举政治的摇摆幅度之大令人感叹:正如印度旅游宣传片的口号所言,印度是“不可思议的”,印度政治也是如此。

As the state with the third largest population (which exceeds 100 million), Bihar is seen as the “ticket bunker” in prior elections. Therefore, the result of Bihar Legislative Assembly election in 2015 was interpreted by analysts as the “wind indicator” of Indian politics in the near future. For Modi, the election served as an important test 17 months after he swore in as Indian Prime Minister, and the result was of more strategic significance. But the fact is – we can only be amazed with the dangling amplitude of the electoral politics in India, compared with the general election Modi won in 2014. The documentaries advertising tourism in India like to use a common title – “The Incredible India”; yes, India is incredible, in the political sense.

为了拿下比哈尔邦的选举,印度人民党(以下简称“印人党”)不可谓不尽心,莫迪本人亲赴比哈尔造势将近30次,并承诺“大礼包”,将给比哈尔送上1.2万亿卢比(约合1150亿人民币)用于支持当地发展。然而,结局却相当地出人意料,颜面扫地的不仅仅是印人党,还有莫迪本人。正如印度著名政治评论家Shekhar Gupta所言,从比哈尔选举结果中可以得出的结论是:“莫迪是完全可以打败的。”

BJP was trying it best to ensure such a significant victory in Bihar. Before the election, Modi attended up to 30 campaigns in Bihar, so as to win the popularity among local voters. In these campaigns, Modi generously promised the voters in Bihar of a “big package” that amounted to 1.2 trillion rupees, all used for the development of the state. However, things didn’t go the way Modi expected; and it is only BJP that felt extremely embarrassed at the result, but also Modi himself. Shekhar Gupta, a famous political commentator of India, says that people can draw a conclusion out of the result of Bihar Legislative Assembly election – “Modi is totally defeatable”.

回到2014年5月的大选,与其说是选民投票给印人党,倒不如说是投票给了莫迪本人。莫迪的团队在选举中精心地造出了“莫迪旋风(Modi Wave)”一词。在莫迪执政后,媒体更是提出印度的“莫迪时代”这一说法。基于中印两国在基本国情上的相似性,以及莫迪本人对中国改革开放的赞誉,甚至有人称他为“印度的邓小平”。

Let’s look back into the general election in May of 2014. In my opinion, the Indian people were actually voting for Modi, rather than for BJP. The campaign team Modi, in the process of election, designed the exquisite label of “Modi Wave”. After Modi inaugurated as the Prime Minister, the Indian media even claimed that a “Modi’s era” was arriving. As China and India does share a lot of common traits in their basic national conditions, and Modi used to give very high praise for China’s “reform and open-up” policy, some even dubbed him as “an Indian version of Deng Xiaoping”.

然而,在印度想要开创一个时代并不容易,要当“印度的邓小平”估计更是前途渺茫。这在2015年2月德里立法院的选举中就已经可以看出端倪了,“莫迪旋风”开始遭遇挫折。德里立法院共有70个议席,印人党只获得了3席,成立仅2年多的印度平民党却获得了67席。

But everyone knows that it is not an easy job to start his own era in India, and the chance is also dim for Modi to become “the Indian version of Deng Xiaoping”. Modi could already learn a great lesson from the Delhi Legislative Assembly election in February of 2015. It was the first major defeat “Modi Wave” suffered. The result was upsetting, as BJP only won 3 out of the total 70 seats, and AAP (Aam Aadmi Party), founded in 2012, won another 67 seats.

成绩单 Report Card

选举政治要求政客们的演讲才能,至少言辞之中要做到“想人民之所想,急人民之所急”,至少要理解普通民众对未来美好生活的向往。“莫迪旋风”首先得益于莫迪高超的演讲才能,以至于国大党发言人拉吉夫·舒克拉在承认选举失败时说:“我们接受失败,因为莫迪向民众许诺星星和月亮,而民众相信了那个梦想。”

Electoral politics demand that the politicians be skillful with their public speeches, and at least they are supposed to “think how the people think, and need what the people need”. To be more specific, they need to be aware of the hopes of the common people for a better life. “Modi Wave” functioned in the general election of 2014 thanks to the outstanding speech skills of Modi. Rajeev Shukla, then spokesperson of the Indian National Congress, said after the general election of 2014: “We do accept the defeat. Modi promised the Indian people of starts and moon, and the people choose to trust that ‘dream’.”

2014年5月16日莫迪就曾向选民承诺:“我希望把21世纪变成印度世纪,这需要10年,不会很长。”而莫迪心腹、“善于争辩”的印度财政部长亚特力(Arun Jaitley)在2015年5月更是对《金融时报》称,中国的发展速度不足以让印度满意,印度要实现至少8%以上的年度经济增长率。如此言论,一眼便知其中的夸张成分。但似乎印度人一开始却真诚地相信莫迪,因为他在古吉拉特邦确实做出了真成绩。换言之,莫迪是一个懂得宣传的实干政治家,这是莫迪旋风能够刮起的第一个原因。

Actually, Modi promised to the voters of India on May 16th of 2014: “I hope to build the 21st century as ‘a century for India’. I’ll take us 10 years – not very long time.” And Arun Jaitley, the incumbent Minister of Finance of India, was seen as a close ally of Modi at that time, and was described as “very skillful with debate”. He said in an interview with Financial Times that India would not be satisfied only by matching the growth rate of Chinese economy. Actually, India would strive for an annual growth rate of at least 8% – he said. Anyone can see that it was much of an exaggeration. But the Indian people chose to put their trust in Modi at that moment, because his performance as the Chief Minister of Gujarat was extraordinary indeed. In another word, Modi is a “doer” who knows how to build a favorable image for himself. This is perhaps the first reason why “Modi Wave” functioned in the general election of 2014.

另一个因素,也许需要归功于他年轻的政治对手拉胡尔·甘地和老气横秋的国大党。在竞选期间,莫迪称拉胡尔是“含着金汤匙出世”的王子,说他是在祖母英迪拉·甘地安静的后花园中嬉戏长大的,又是在牛津和哈佛接受教育的官二代、富二代。而莫迪自己的童年却是“摆茶水摊”长大的,成年后又逃脱家族操办的婚姻,赴喜马拉雅山进行精神旅行,俨然是一位出生低微但又有理想、有追求的青年,加上他依靠个人努力而成就一番事业的故事,在印度这个在全世界平均人口年龄最轻的国家里,无疑很有“励志”的效果。再看看拉胡尔在竞选演讲中的内敛与羞涩,更加能够凸显莫迪演讲的激情澎湃,也为他增添了作为青年榜样的魅力。

There’s another reason: in 2014, Modi was competing against Rahul Gandhi (who was too young as a politician) and the old-fashioned Indian National Congress. During the election, Modi jokingly dubbed Rahul as “a prince born with a silver spoon”, and claimed that Rahul was “growing up in the serene back garden of Indira Gandhi, his grandmother”. Rahul is a typical princeling, and belongs to “the rich second nation” with degrees of Cambridge and Harvard; while Modi was already feeding himself by selling tea since his childhood. Besides, Mod was also known for defying the arranged marriage, and completing a spiritual journey to the Himalaya Mountains. Well, it’s a touching story about a young man of low birth, who was constantly driven by his dreams and pursuits. And after then, Modi continued to achieve tremendous success with his own efforts, and the story cannot be more encouraging for the younger generation, who were born in a country with the lowest average age among all major economies. On contrary, Rahul was described as too reserved, and even shy in his election campaign, and the passionate speech of Modi not only won the hearts of most Indians, but also set him as a perfect example for the younger generation.

莫迪旋风的产生,还得益于国大党为首的辛格政府已经执政十年,印度人们已经积攒了足够的厌倦情绪。这种厌倦,并不完全是因为国大党做得不够好(事实上国大党的政策一直是倾向于照顾底层民众),或者经济发展速度慢,也不是反对党们常常说的腐败问题,而是因为发展中国家本身就存在的民主政治的常态。民粹主义情绪日渐浓重的印度,实在受不了一个老气横秋的国大党一直把持着印度政权。因此,辛格的年老体迈,索妮娅·甘地的“垂帘听政”,以及对甘地王朝的厌倦,都成为人们选举莫迪的理由。

The birth of “Modi Wave” is also attributed to the fact that the Indian National Congress, led by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, had served as the ruling part for ten years, and the Indian people had accumulated enough resentments in the decade. It is not to say that the Indian National Congress was not doing a good job – as a matter of fact, they tended to give priority to the unprivileged population. People were not specifically complaining about the sluggish economic development, or the corruption problem – which was frequently raised by the opposition parties; the rotation of ruling parties is quite normal in a developing country with electoral politics. In the eyes of the Indian people, Manmohan Singh was too old to lead the country, and Sonia Gandhi intended to “hold court from behind a screen” – tired of the “Gandhi Dynasty”, the voters had their own reasons to choose Modi.

由此,印人党成为30年来在议会选举中得票最多的政党。鉴于过去印度政治一贯以来的分散化、地方化,如此强势的政党和强势领导人的执政,无疑提升了整个国际社会对莫迪未来大有作为的期待。

As a result, BJP won the most votes in the general election of last 3 decades. Before that, Indian politics were characterized as “decentralized” and “regional”. When such a strong party like BJP, and such an assertive leader like Modi started to rule, the expectations for them were raised by the international communities.

就职不到两年,莫迪就走访世界各国,在国际舞台上也掀起了不小的“莫迪旋风”,提升了印度与周边及各大国的关系。这一方面源于他比任期结束时已80多岁的前任总理辛格更加年富力强,另一方面也源于他“积极有所作为”的理念。

Modi has travelled extensively after he inaugurated as Indian Prime Minister less than 2 years ago, and is indeed bringing “Modi Wave” onto the international stage. As a result, India has notably improved her relationship with neighboring countries and other superpowers. It is understandable as Modi is in the prime of his time compared with Manmohan Singh, who is already in his eighties. On another hand, Modi is putting into practice his philosophy of “doing something positive”.

就周边外交而言,莫迪采取了更加积极的周边外交,提出邻国优先(Neighbour First)政策,推动南亚地区一体化进程。在大国关系中,莫迪更是游刃有余,显示出商人的精明和务实。他不仅提升了印度与美日之间的防务合作水平,也在很多政策中大胆表明印度立场,一改辛格时期的“老好人”政策。

Talking about his foreign policies, Modi has taken more active measures to handle the diplomatic relationship with neighboring countries, with Modi’s philosophy of “Neighbor First”. By doing that, Modi intends to accelerate the integration process of South Asia. Modi is also skillful in dealing with global superpowers, demonstrating his shrewdness and pragmatism. Not only did he manage to elevate the defense cooperation level between Indian, US and Japan, he is also very vocal about India’s standpoint in various international issues – much different from the “nice guy” image built by Singh government.

莫迪一方面明确了支持美国的亚太再平衡政策和南海问题的立场,与此同时,也加强与中俄的关系,不仅在金砖机制内加强合作,也加入了中俄主导的上海合作组织,并申请加入俄罗斯主导的欧亚经济联盟。莫迪显然是看到了当前大国关系中的紧张,印度作为相对超脱的一方,能够巧妙地在各方中行走,获得最大的收益。

On one hand, Modi is a firm supporter of US’s strategy of “Asia-Pacific Rebalance”, and backs up US in a series of issues concerning South China Sea. On the other hand, he also strengthens India’s relationship with China and Russia. Not only are they joining hands within the framework of BRICS, India was also given full membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (with China and Russia as the cores), and is applying to join The Eurasian Economic Union, an organization led by Russia. In view of the intense situation between global superpowers, Modi managed to steer India – as a more detached party – to travel around them skillfully, and to gain the most profits possible.

但在内政上,“莫迪旋风”的效果似乎显得颇具争议。虽然莫迪改善了印度官僚机构的行事作风,降低了货币通胀率,缓慢提升了经济增长率,进一步开放外资准入的领域和占股比例,有的领域甚至已允许100%的外国投资。但是,在核心的税制改革、征地、劳工等改革措施上,不仅议案难以通过议会联邦院,而且还激起了大规模的抗议集会。

Speaking of domestic policies, the effect of “Modi Wave” would arouse many controversies. To be frank, Modi did improve the efficiencies of government apparatus in India, reduce monetary inflation, slowly raise economic growth rate, and expand the scope of industries that are open for foreign direct investment – and even with a larger proportion of share, as FDI already accounts for 100% of the share in some fields. However, Modi met with giant setbacks in a series of reform plans concerning taxation, land acquisition and labor regulations. Not only did his bills fail to be passed in the Rajya Sabha, they also aroused large-scale protest demonstrations in various states of India.

2015年8月底,在莫迪家乡的古吉拉特邦,帕特尔家族就发起抗议,要求政府把自己也加入到各种福利和优惠政策的享受者名单之中。2015年9月初,全印度更是多地工人大罢工,抗议莫迪政府的经济改革计划。以至于莫迪生日的场子也被“砸”了。

In the end of August, 2015, the Patel Family organized protests in the State of Gujarat – Modi’s hometown – demanding that the government add them into the list of people who are entitled to various social welfares and favorable policies. In early September of 2015, several workers’ strikes broke out in various cities of India, in protest of the economic reform plan of Modi’s government. As a result, the Prime Minister was not in mood of celebrating his own birthday (on September 17th).

由国大党主导的联邦院不仅强力地阻击莫迪的改革方案,还指责印人党“亲近富人、亲近企业”,引起越来越多农民的不满。对莫迪的另外一项的指控是,印人党上台后,印度教右翼势力抬头,印度的宗教宽容度在下降,导致了印度教徒与穆斯林之间的关系日趋紧张,而印度人民党在地方选举中又偏偏主打印度教牌,进一步疏远了穆斯林选民。

Actually, Modi’s reform plans were constantly obstructed in the Rajya Sabha, where the Indian National Congress has the most seats. Moreover, the opposition parties continued to criticize BJP for “being too close to the rich people and to business”, and Indian peasants are obviously unhappy about BJP’s stand. Modi is also receiving several accusations as the right-wing Hindu forces started to gain ground after BJP started to rule, and the religious tolerance is vanishing in India. As a result, the tension between Hindus and Muslims in Indian is becoming even worse, and BJP gives very high priority to Hinduism in regional election campaigns, and the rifts with Indian Muslims are becoming even more conspicuous.

气势不再 No more “Modi Wave”?

那么问题来了,接下来“莫迪旋风”到底还能持续多久?显然,人口大邦比哈尔选举的大败无疑加大了印度人民党控制议会上院的难度。而接下来印人党在西孟邦、北方邦的选举中,选情也肯定不足以乐观。莫迪魅力下降已经不是短暂现象,而将是一个持续发展的普遍现象了。

So let’s get down to the primary question – how long can “Modi Wave” last after all? Obviously, the shameful defeat in Bihar Legislative Assembly election makes it even more difficult for BJP to take control of the Rajya Sabha. BJP is also facing election campaigns in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, and the situations there are by no means optimistic. The charm of Modi is fading, which is growing into a lasting, universal phenomenon, rather than some temporary difficulties.

自2014年5月的大选之后,到目前为止,印人党已经在马哈拉施特拉邦、德里等5个邦进行过邦立法院的选举。除了马哈拉施特拉邦、哈里亚纳邦外,印人党都算是失利了。即便是在没有失利的哈里亚纳邦中,印人党得票率也从34.70%下降到33.20%。唯独没有下降的是马哈拉施特拉邦,不过得票率也是基本维持不变。

Since the general election in May of 2014, BJP has had 5 legislative assembly elections in 5 states of India, including Maharashtra and Delhi. Apart from the narrow wins in Maharashtra and Haryana, BJP suffered defeats in other 3 states. In the election of Haryana, the percentage of votes BJP received dropped from 34.70% to 33.20%; things were better for BJP in Maharashtra, as the percentage of votes it received neither dropped nor climbed.

11月26日印度将要召开冬季议会。很显然,议会上院会继续阻止莫迪所期待的破产法、征地法、税法改革。当然,这仍无法阻挡莫迪的其他改革措施,他依旧会继续推进市场化的诸多措施,只是步伐会大大放缓,毕竟印人党在下院拥有多数票。果真如此,即便是给莫迪十年时间,他也无法缔造出“印度世纪”。当然,更别提他所承诺过的“全国大大小小村镇通路通水通电”的承诺了。

The winter session of Indian parliament is schedule to be held on November 26th, 2015. Obviously, the Rajya Sabha will continue to block the laws of bankruptcy, land acquisition, and taxation reforms. But no one can stop Modi from pushing forward his reform plans, and I believe he will continue to bring several measures of marketization – only with slower paces. After all, BJP has most seats in Lok Sabha. All being said, it is like an impossible mission for Modi to build “a century of India”, even if he is kindly given 10 years’ time. Not to mention his prior promise of “making sure all towns and villages in India are connected with roads, water and electricity”.

“莫迪旋风”的逐渐减弱,根本在于印度根深蒂固的“社会主义”的发展思维,而民主制度又为它的民粹主义化提供了制度平台。多年来观察印度政治的经验和直觉告诉我们,“莫迪旋风”仍旧会刮下去,但是其一度所向披靡的气势已经不可能延续和再现。

The effect of “Modi Wave” is becoming weaker than ever. There is an inveterate “socialist” development thought in India, while electoral politics is building an institutional platform for populism. As a long standing observer of Indian politics, my instinct,is that the “Modi Wave” will continue to blow, but the Prime Minister cannot expect the invincible momentum of the wave to last long.

 

print
Share now