Journal : MOFA World Knowledge Journal Date : Author : NA Page No. : NA
URL : http://www.1think.com.cn/ViewArticle/html/Article_4FFA4A807C07BCF4B4EF9BFBD2A90C8B_32612.html

“强印度”下的中国南亚外交

作者:作者李青燕系中国国际问题研究院国际战略研究所研究人员
文章来源: 《世界知识》2016年01期

Author: Li Qingyan, research fellow of Institute of International Strategy, China Institute of International Studies

Source: The first issue of World Affairs*, 2016 (*World Affairs is a bimonthly magazine published by World Affairs Publishing House, sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China. Also translated as “World Knowledge Journal”.)

 

内容提要 Abstract

2015年的南亚形势,虽总体稳定但仍不容乐观,各国内政与国家间关系动荡,安全形势趋紧,经济发展受各方因素影响增长乏力。南亚的新动向,既为中国加强与南亚的合作提供契机,同时也增加了中国经略南亚的紧迫性。

The situation of South Asia was generally stable in 2015, but I cannot define it as “optimistic”. The problems may lie in the turbulences of internal affairs of South Asian countries, and their diplomatic relationships; the tightening situation of regional security, and the slackening regional economy hampered by multi-faceted factors. The new trends in South Asia provide China with new opportunities to establish cooperative ties with countries in this region, and also add up to China’s pressure to map her strategies here.

1.各国内政震荡  1. The turbulences of internal affairs

莫迪政府执政一年来挑战凸显。随着新政逐步深入推进,莫迪施政阻力和困难也日益显现。

Several controversies have raised their head in Indian society since Modi was swore in as Prime Minister more than one year ago. Meanwhile, hinderances and difficulties are also becoming overwhelming for the Indian government to deal with administrative affairs.

一是改革遭遇多方抵制。莫迪政府推出《商品与服务税法》、《征地法》等关键法案,目的是破解税制和土地政策沉疴,为拉动投资、改善基础设施和促进工业、制造业发展等扫除障碍。

For one thing, the reform plans of Modi suffer a major setback owing to the oppositions from various aspects. The Indian government has submitted several key bills – notably GST (goods and services tax bill) and land acquisition bill – to the Indian Parliament, so as to cure the lingering ailments in India’s taxation systems and land policies, and to clear hurdles for attracting investment, infrastructure facilities, and advancement of manufacturing.

但相关法案不仅遭到国大党、草根国大党和左翼联盟的强烈反对,也受到湿婆军、阿卡利党等印人党重要盟党的抵制。

However, the bills were strongly opposed not only by the Indian National Congress, but also by Trinamool Congress and the Left Front. The opposition parties were later joined by several allies of BJP, including Shiva Seva and Akali Dal.

二是施政受地方邦选举掣肘。继德里邦选举惨败后,10月在北方大邦比哈尔邦选举再次失利表明莫迪执政“蜜月期”过早结束,莫迪未来执政阻力将更加突出。

For another thing, the efforts of Modi and his government were handicapped by failures in local elections. After a major defeat in Delhi Legislative Assembly election in February of 2015, BJP suffered another setback in Bihar – an important state in the north of India. It is clear that Modi has lost his charm after the “honey moon” of the new Prime Minister and new ruling party is gone, and the opposition will grow even more evident in the rest part of Modi’s tenure.

三是印人党自身问题日益凸显。签证丑闻、考试舞弊案等反映出党内缺乏监管和腐败问题。同时,党内派系之争也削弱了印人党凝聚力。

To make things worse, problems within the BJP have been aggravating in recent years. The visa fraud and examination fraud reflect the corruption problems inside the party caused by lack of checks and balances. Meanwhile, the cohesive force of BJP is reduced sharply by the conflicts between different factions inside the party.

四是莫迪改革政策未得到底层民众理解和认同,其支持商业发展的经济政策引发了数百万印度工人大罢工,印社会矛盾积重难返。

Not to mention the fact that Modi’s reform policies are not well understood and recognized by the underprivileged Indian population. Millions of Indian workers joined the recent general strikes in protest of Modi’s economic policies, which obviously advocate business development. It is now impossible to resolve the accumulated contradictions of the Indian society.

巴基斯坦谢里夫执政受军方及反对党的制约上升。打恐行动仍在继续,虽然取得一定成效,巴境内安全形势好转,但导致上百万民众流离失所,西北部地区依旧动荡。

In Pakistan, the ruling government of Nawaz Sharif – the incumbent Prime Minister – is restricted by the military  and the opposition parties.  While terrorist attacks continue, the security situation inside Pakistan is turning for the better; however, millions of ordinary Pakistanis are forced to leave their homes, and the northwestern region is still troubled by turbulence.

尼泊尔历经七年终于在2015年9月出台新宪法,但却引发了马德西人对特莱平原行政划界不满,致使民族问题不断发酵,国内冲突升级。

In Nepal, a new Constitution was finally passed in September 2015, after a prolonged preparation of 7 years. However, the new Constitution aroused resentment amongst the Madhesi people in the administrative division of Terai. The racial problems continued to brew in India, and domestic confrontations were escalated.

印度蓄意干涉,力度空前,对尼泊尔实施“非正式禁运”,造成尼泊尔政治、经济陷入困境。

India was intending to intervene in the regional politics with unprecedented intensities, and even imposed an “unofficial embargo” on Nepal, which was immediately trapped in an extremely difficult situation both politically and economically.

斯里兰卡年初政权更迭后,亲印势力上台,叫停由中国企业投资建设的科伦坡港口城项目。泰米尔人在印度支持下士气大振,重燃与斯主体民族僧伽罗人的矛盾。

Sri Lanka witnesses a shift of ruling parties at the beginning of 2015, and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, which is close to India, immediately halted the harbor project in Colombo, in which Chinese companies had invested. The Tamil people started to gain ground with the support of India, and their contradictions with the Sinhalese people (the majority group in Sri Lanka) grew even fiercer.

阿富汗总统加尼、政府首席执行官阿卜杜拉两派政治力量明争暗斗,导致中央和地方政府执政能力低下。两派政治势力在修宪、选举制度等问题上分歧较大,联合政府前途未卜。

In Afghanistan, the two political forces represented by Ashraf Ghani (the President) and Abdullah Abdullah (the Chief Executive Officer) struggled overtly and covertly, and the administrative capacities of central and local governments went down to extremely low levels. The divergences of both sides are huge — over a series of key issues like Constitutional amendments and election system — and the future of the coalition government  is uncertain.

马尔代夫审判前总统、现总统险遭暗杀等事件搅乱政局,全国一度进入紧急状态。

In Maldives, the country was in a state of emergency after a series of political turbulences, including the trial of Mohamed Nasheed, the former President, and the attempt assassination of Abdulla Yameen, the incumbent President.

2.各国经济社会发展参差不齐  2.The uneven economic and social development of each country

南亚经济增长是全球所有地区中最快的,由于印度增长表现强劲,2015年的地区增长率将提升至7.1%。但各国发展不平衡现象进一步加剧。

South Asia boasts the fastest economic development among all regions in the world. Thanks to the remarkable performance of the Indian economy, the economic growth rate in South Asia rose to 7.1% in 2015. However, the problem of uneven development became even more serious for different countries in this region.

印度经济全年增长预计约7.5%,但莫迪政府在劳工、征地、税收等核心改革上尚无突破,营商环境虽有所改善但仍排在全球130位左右。

The estimated economic growth rate of India is expected to hit 7.5% in 2016. But Modi and the Indian government have made no notable breakthroughs with reform of the laws of labor, taxation and land requisition, and India’s domestic business environment (which ranks around 130th worldwide) calls for giant improvement.

巴基斯坦借助“中巴经济走廊”,加大基础设施建设投资,经济发展和国家建设形势转好,国际评级调高标准普尔将巴20152017年经济增长率预测从3.8%提高至4.6%,并将其前景展望由稳定提升至正面。

With the help of “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”, Pakistan is strengthening her efforts for investment in infrastructure facility constructions, and the prospect of economic growth and national construction is turning for the better. Standard & Poor, an American financial services company, elevates the forecast of Pakistani economic growth in 2017 from 3.8% to 4.6%, and upgrades other forecasts from “stable” to “positive”.

不过,受能源电力短缺和结构性矛盾因素制约,巴实现经济腾飞仍待时日,同时安全问题和地震灾害也掣肘政府推行改革政策。阿富汗经济持续恶化,外援锐减,财政紧缺,经济濒临破产。

However, it might take a long period for the Pakistani economy to take off, as the country is troubled by  power shortage and structural contradictions. To make things worse, reform plans of the Pakistani government are hindered by security problems and natural disasters (especially earthquakes). On the other hand, the national economy of Afghanistan keeps deteriorating, and is on the verge of bankruptcy with a sharp reduction of foreign aid and a shortage of national finance.

尼泊尔先是在“4・25”大地震中损失惨重,经济社会恢复艰难;9月以来又受印度边境运输通道封锁影响,燃油、药品等生产生活必需品紧缺,经济面临崩溃。

Nepal suffered great losses in the earthquake of April 25th, 2015, and the recovery process of economic and social foundations proved extremely arduous. In September of 2015, the transport corridor along the border of Nepal and India was blocked, and Nepal suffered a serious shortage of necessities for life and production, like fuel oil and medicines. The national economy of Nepal is now on the verge of a breakdown.

斯里兰卡政府叫停外国投资项目,重挫外商信心,导致斯资金链断裂,外债问题凸显,陷入金融危机。

In Sri Lanka, nearly all FDI projects were halted by the government, and the confidence of foreign investors slumped accordingly. Therefore, Sri Lanka soon suffered from breaks in fund flows and also from prominent foreign debts, and the era of financial crisis came again.

3.各国间关系波动、受挫 3.The fluctuations and setbacks of bilateral relationships

莫迪政府上台伊始提出“邻国第一”的外交政策,竭力笼络斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和孟加拉国等周边小国。但随后印度难掩野心,其霸道做法惹怒众邻。

After Modi took office, he is giving top priority to India’s neighbouring countries in his foreign policies. India has established close ties with Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh, but her wild ambition is too big to be concealed, and the neighbours soon become irritated with India’s bullying behaviour.

印度以尼泊尔新宪法未能反映尼南部马德西人诉求为由,干涉尼泊尔内政,对其实施禁运。尼泊尔反印浪潮高涨,亲印势力下台,两国关系降至1989年印度对尼泊尔经济封锁以来的新低。

Claiming that the new Constitution of Nepal failed to represent the interests of the Madhesi people, who live in the south of Nepal, India started to interfere in the domestic affairs of Nepal by imposing an embargo. The protests went beyond control in Nepal, and the pro-India government was finally overthrown. Hence, India-Nepal relationship arrived at another “freezing point” after India initiated an economic blockade in Nepal in 1989.

印度与巴基斯坦关系的缓和转瞬即逝,双方在克什米尔实控线附近数度交火,对巴搞“冷启动”战略,两国高层对话中断。

The warming of India-Pakistan relationship proved to be a flash in the pan. The two countries had frequent military confrontations along the actual control line of Kashmir, and India started a “Cold Start” strategy towards Pakistan. The high-level dialogues were suspended.

印度不满阿富汗在战略安全上转向巴基斯坦,拒绝举行印阿战略伙伴会议,威胁放弃哈吉夹克铁矿项目,印阿关系出现龃龉。印度还通过断水、断油、断电,影响不丹及马尔代夫政治安排,两国有苦难言。

India is dissatisfied with the fact that Afghanistan tilts toward Pakistan on a series of issues concerning strategic security, and refuses to sponsor a new conference of India-Afghanistan strategic partnership. Furthermore, India also threats to abandon the iron mine project in Hajigak. Bilateral (relations) between India and Afghanistan continue to deteriorate. India also influences the political arrangements of Bhutan and Maldives by cutting off water, oil and electricity power supplies. The two “small countries” have no choice but to swallow the bitterness.

印度还借泰米尔问题敲打斯里兰卡政府,干涉斯内政。孟加拉国质疑印度的睦邻政策,担忧与印度的贸易和通道联通计划将危及孟加拉国的主权和独立。

India also interfered in the domestic affairs of Sri Lank in name of the Tamil issues. On the other hand, Bangladesh remained sckeptical of India’s foreign policies towards neighbouring countries, in fear that the sovereignty and independence of the country might be threatened by India through trade and economic corridors.

此外,阿富汗加尼政府认为对巴基斯坦的示好政策未取得预期成效,随着阿国内安全局势恶化,阿国内指责巴基斯坦的声音增多,加尼也对巴基斯坦的促谈表现出失望,阿巴和解势头受挫。

Besides, the pro-Pakistan policies of Ashraf Ghani and the Afghan government proved not so effective as expected. The domestic security situation grew worse in Afghanistan, and the voices of criticism for Pakistan became louder in Pakistan. President Ghani was disappointed with the moves of Pakistan, and the promise of reconciliation met with major setbacks.

4.安全形势更趋复杂严峻 4.Grave situation for regional security

巴基斯坦军方的“利剑”行动发挥作用,但残余恐怖分子窜至阿富汗境内,并以阿为基地频繁发动袭击。

The “Strike of the Sword” action carried out by Pakistani army did function well to combat the terrorists, but those who escaped fled into Afghanistan territory, and conducted frequent attacks with Afghanistan as the new headquarters.

2015年7月,阿政府和塔利班在巴基斯坦穆里举行首次公开和谈,但奥马尔死讯爆出后,阿塔内部分裂加剧,和谈被搁置。阿塔新头目曼苏尔地位未稳,为拉拢主战派,扩大影响、树立权威,加大战场攻势,阿国内武装冲突升级。

In July 2015, the Afghan government and Taliban had the first ever peaceful talk in Murree, Pakistan. But after the death of Omar, Taliban were occupied with their internal divisions, and the peaceful talks were shelved temporarily. Mansour, the new paramount leader of Taliban in Afghanistan, had not yet acquired real power, and had to escalate attacks in order to bring  the warring factions closer, expand his influence and consolidate his authority. As a result, domestic armed conflicts also escalated correspondingly.

和谈变数增加,短期内难有进展。在强硬派竭力破坏和谈的情况下,阿塔对和谈要价提高,和谈面临更多挑战。

The future of the peaceful talks is uncertain now, and it is virtually impossible to achieve substantial progress in the  short term. With hard liners sabotaging the process of the peace talks by all possible means,  the Afghan Taliban wants to demand even more in the talks, and there will be even more challenges in the road ahead.

同时,“伊斯兰国”、“乌伊运”等恐怖势力有机可乘,加紧向南亚渗透,在阿富汗扎根。“伊斯兰国”更为极端的理念和做法吸引了各派强硬分子加入,巴基斯坦塔利班分支宣誓效忠。南亚各极端组织为彰显实力竞相发动暴恐袭击,地区安全形势趋紧。

Meanwhile, terrorist forces like ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) and IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) find opportunities to invade, accelerate the pace of infiltration  the South Asian region, and strike deep roots in Afghanistan. ISIS has employed tough lines of different factions with its extremist ideology, and the Pakistan Taliban has sworn allegiance and pledged eternal loyalty to ISIS. The different extremist groups in South Asia start multiple terrorist attacks in order to demonstrate their military strength, and regional security is again under serious threat.

5.中国在南亚的外交运筹 5.China’s diplomatic strategy in South Asia

印度一直希望进一步强化其在南亚的主导地位,阻滞中国进入印度洋,力图扮演本地区安全“监管者”和“供应者”双重角色。

India is dreaming of consolidating her dominance in South Asia, so as to block China’s path to the Indian Ocean. In a word, India is trying to play the double roles of “supervisor” and “supplier” simultaneously.

美国、俄罗斯、沙特、伊朗和土耳其将继续在阿富汗投棋布子。美国自2015年初再次推进“新丝绸之路计划”,以阿富汗为中心联通中亚与南亚。俄罗斯和中亚国家多次表示担忧阿富汗“恐怖外溢”。

US, Russia, Saudi Arab, Iran and Turkey continue to map their respective strategic plans in Afghanistan. US launched the plan of “New Silk Road” in the beginning of 2015, aiming to connect countries in Middle Asia and South Asia with Afghanistan as the center. On the other hand, Russia and other Middle Asian countries expressed their concerns about “terrorist overflow” from Afghanistan.

日本将继续通过“金元外交”,扩大其在阿富汗、孟加拉国和斯里兰卡等国的影响力。南亚多国皆是中国近邻,南亚地区也是中国“一带一路”倡议推进的关键区域。中巴全天候战略伙伴关系是中国在南亚的重要支点,而印度的“霸主作为”对中国经略南亚存在阻遏。

Japan is carrying on with her “dollar diplomacy”, and tries to cast ever greater influence in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Most South Asian countries are close neighbours of China, which considers South Asia to be a key zone for the grand plan of “One Belt, One Road” proposed by it. The all-weather strategic partnership between China and Pakistan now serves as a major strategic support for China in South Asia, and India is trying to contain China’s influence here with her “overlord moves”.

南亚小国对印度“负责任崛起”的质疑上升。鉴于此,中国应在继续保持中印关系平稳发展、深化中巴关系务实合作的基础上,拉近与南亚小国关系,加大基建投入,扩展外交空间,加强安全合作。

On the other hand, the small countries in South Asia have become even more sckeptical of India’s claim of “rising with responsibility”. In view of the delicate situation, China is supposed to establish close ties with these small countries, while strengthening her all-round pragmatic cooperation with Pakistan. By deepening the commitment in infrastructure facility construction, China is likely to explore further space of diplomatic manoeuvers, and to strengthen  regional security  cooperation.

发展中印关系 维护边境地区和平与稳定,重点推进经贸关系,推动印度放宽签证及投资限制。莫迪国内改革受挫,经济发展亟需大量外资注入。印度希望吸引中国投资,将有意减少中印经济合作的一些障碍。

A healthy bilateral relationship between China and India is beneficial to regional peace and stability along the border of two countries. Priority is also given to economic and commercial ties, and India is supposed to facilitate the application process of visa and to relax the restrictions of FDI. Modi met with huge hindrances to his reform plans in 2015, and is now in urgent need of foreign capital to boost India’s national economy. India has enormous interest in investments from China, and has taken active measures to bring down the barriers of China-India economic cooperation.

但印度仍将冷对中国的“一带一路”倡议。对于与南亚其他国家的关系,印度会进行一定反思,巩固其在南亚的传统势力,平衡中国在这一地区上升的影响力。中国可以共同帮助尼泊尔灾后重建为切入点,在南亚地区第三国建设项目上探索“中印+1”合作模式。

It is clear that India will turn a cold face to China’s proposal of “One Belt, One Road”. On the other hand, India should make some serious reflection on her relationship with other South Asian countries, and figure out how to restore her dominant role here, so as to balance China’s rising impact in this region. China can take the post-earthquake reconstruction in Nepal as the point of penetration, and explore the new cooperative method of “China, India +1” in some construction projects involving a third party.

深化中巴关系 “中巴经济走廊”落地实施,进展顺利,已取得一批早期收获成果,包括喀喇昆仑公路升级改造二期工程、卡西姆港煤电、真纳太阳能电力园等。瓜达尔港项目有序推进,工业园区抓紧落实。

The “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”, as a new measure to deepen China-Pakistan relationship, is already in the process of implementation, and the related projects are going quite smoothly indeed.

然而,问题和挑战也逐步显现,中巴需保持密切沟通与合作,避免巴国内党争及军政矛盾带来的负面影响。同时,需了解巴方民意与媒体动向,注意“软实力”跟进。

However, problems and challenges are gaining ground, and China and Pakistan must keep frequent contact and cooperation, so as to avoid adverse impact of partisan conflicts and contradictions between the government and the army. Meanwhile, China needs to monitor the popular will and media reports in Pakistan, and follow up with her “soft power”.

增进中尼、中孟关系,转圜中斯关系 尼泊尔因印度禁运引发“油气荒”,向中国求助,中国迅速行动,向尼提供紧急燃油援助。后续将推进中尼石油产品贸易正常化,并加强与尼的联通建设,改善升级两国边境口岸公路。

Besides, China will continue to strengthen her relationship between Nepal and Bangladesh, and try to mend her relationship with Sri Lanka. Towards the end of last year, Nepal suffered a crisis after India cut off  oil and gas supplies, and had to resort to China for help. China reacted promptly to Nepal’s request, and provided fuel aid immediately to Nepal. After then, China normalized China-Nepal bilateral trade of oil products, strengthened their mutual efforts in joint construction projects, and upgraded the highways connecting the border ports of both countries.

孟加拉国关切中国在贸易关税、贷款利率等方面对孟的优惠政策,中国可在互惠双赢的基础上积极回应。斯里兰卡财政困难,渴望外资,而印度、美国、日本投资口惠而实不至。

Bangladesh is deeply concerned about China’s preferential policies in trade, tariff and loan interest, etc. China is supposed to give positive responses on the basis of mutual benefit and win-win situation. Sri Lanka is recently going through serious financial crisis, and is in urgent need of foreign capital. Although India, US and Japan used to promise Sri Lanka investments, no concrete actions have been taken actually.

斯里兰卡新政府近期反省其对华不友好政策,有意缓和与中国的关系。中国将与斯里兰卡保持沟通,促进在斯港口城项目重启。

The new government of Sri Lanka is recently reflecting on its prior unfriendly policies towards China, and is intending to mend the bilateral relationship. China must keep in regular touch with Sri Lanka, so as to restart the harbor city projects, which were halted in 2015.

救灾援助外交 尼泊尔、阿富汗、巴基斯坦在救灾、应对次生灾害、灾民安置、疫病防控等方面,缺乏经验和能力,面临严峻挑战。

China will also take disaster relief assistance as a new channel of diplomacy. Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan have no adequate experiences and capacities of coping with secondary disasters, settlements of the victims, disease prevention and control, etc. They’ll surely face grave challenges in case of serious natural disasters.

作为它们的近邻,中国充分展示负责任大国形象及“亲、诚、惠、容”的周边外交理念,率先行动,积极向受灾国施援,并带动国际社会加大援助力度。

As their close neighbour, China is supposed to showcase her image as a responsible superpower, with pragmatic neighbouring diplomatic policies of “kindness, candor, benefit and tolerance”, and to take proactive measures to offer substantial assistance to the disaster-stricken countries, setting an example for the international community and calling upon more rescue efforts.

中国的应急援助措施与后续援建相结合,对其他南亚小国形成“示范效应”,有利于改变南亚传统力量格局。

China has exerted “demonstration effect” on the small countries in South Asia with a combination of emergency aid measures and after-disaster reconstructions, thus altering the traditional power structure in South Asia.

加强反恐合作 阿塔、巴塔、“基地”组织、“伊斯兰国”、“乌伊运”、“东伊运”等各股恐怖极端势力交织在一起,伺机做强,对中国推进“中巴经济走廊”、“丝绸之路经济带”建设存在潜在威胁。

Chances also lie in cooperation of anti-terrorist efforts. Their common enemies include Taliban forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda, ISIS, IMU, ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement), etc. Sometimes things get more complicated as different organizations will join together as a more powerful force. They’re posing serious threat to “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” and “Silk Road Economic Belt”, etc.

中国与美国、俄罗斯、伊朗和印度在内的各利益攸关方保持沟通,加强与巴基斯坦、阿富汗等地区国家间的安全合作,积极支持阿富汗和平进程,帮助相关国家提升反恐能力建设,促进地区反恐合作,维护中国西部边陲安全。

China is supposed to keep active communications with US, Russia, Iran, India and other party concerned, and to strengthen the cooperation with Pakistan and Afghanistan to ensure regional security. Besides, it’s also part of China’s obligation to help to strengthen the anti-terrorist capacities for the countries concerned, to strength regional cooperation of anti-terrorist efforts, and to ensure the security of China’s western frontier.

本文为作者个人观点,不代表国关国政外交学人平台观点
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of World Affaris.

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