Journal : Global Times (Chinese) Date : Author : Mayuri Mukherjee, Qiao Hengyi Page No. : 6
URL : http://www.jdqu.com/read-845189-6.html

 

Article originally published in the Diplomat on April 27, titled: India: carefully walking the line between China and the U.S.?

 

Earlier this month, when Indian and U.S. Defence Ministers agreed in principle to sign the Logistics Safeguard Agreement to advance military relations, many in India wondered if the pact would push the country into an unnecessarily tight embrace with the United States. More importantly people were anxious to know how an increasingly confident China will deal with this closeness. In this context many people thought that the India-China high level meetings that followed soon after were to assuage Beijing. But the result was far from it.

Soon after American Secretary of Defence Carter’s visit to India, the Indian Defense Minister visited China, Indian and Chinese Foreign Ministers met in Moscow and later India’s National Security Adviser came to Beijing to participate in India-China border discussion….however, the Chinese did not harp about the India-U.S. logistics agreement.

Beijing’s decision to underplay the pact is interesting, because, even if only in a limited sense, the LSA does have a bearing on Chinese strategic calculations. The pact will institutionalize India-U.S. military activities, particularly between the navies.This will certainly help the U.S. Navy, which plans to deploy its surface ships in the Indo-Pacific in the near future As far as India is concerned, the technology it receives from the US will be important for the Indian Navy in maintaining the asymmetric advantage against China.

So, why isn’t China raising a hue and cry over this? There are two reasons: first, the agreement is still in its infancy. Second, the very expectation that China will go ballistic (and perhaps retaliate) is overblown. A tiny nation like Sri Lanka, where China has made multi-million dollar investments, has signed the LSA with the United States without so much as a pipsqueak from Beijing.

In the last few years, India has been very careful with Beijing, but to no gain. The regime in New Delhi understands this, and thus the Modi government is trying to present China with a more confident and self-assured face. However, India should be careful. If New Delhi wants to play the big game, then it is important to focus on the big picture and think from a larger perspective. Did it make sense to invest so much precious diplomatic bandwidth in China on Masood Azhar, important as it may be to pursue the case against him?  On the contrary, India should really be paying attention to the undergoing large-scale advancement reform in the Chinese military. The PLA is making determined preparations  not only for the next war but also to bolster the country’s aggressive economic forays abroad, through its ambitious One Road, One Belt project. India needs a credible response, especially for the Indian Ocean region

(Author Mayuri Mukherjee, Qiao Hengyi)

北京为何对印度的举动不紧张

 

环球时报第六版

北京为何对印度的举动不紧张

日本《外交学者》4月27日文章,原题:印度,小心翼翼走在中美之间? 本月较早前,印美防长原则上同意签署一项促进军事关系的后勤保障协议。当时,印度许多人质疑,该协议是否会把印度推向与美国不必要的紧密拥抱。更重要的是,他们担心日益自信的中国不会容忍这种亲近。在此背景下,许多人以为之后印中官员的高层互动,会是为取悦北京。但结果远非如此。

美防长访印后,印度防长很快对华首访,印中外长在莫斯科会晤,印国家安全顾问在北京参加印中边界会谈……然而,中国人并没对印方的任何官员唠叨印美后勤协议。

淡化处理,北京这种做法有意思。因为即便在有限的意义上,该协议也会对中国的战略考虑产生影响。它将令印美军事活动制度化,这肯定有助于美海军在印度-太平洋扩大水面舰艇的部署。对印度来说,由此获得的技术对印海军保持对中国的非对称优势很重要。

 

那北京为何没对此大张旗鼓地表态呢?原因有二:一,该协议目前还处于初期。二,对中国会发飙(或报复)的预期显然是夸大了。要知道,连斯里兰卡这样的小国,都已与美国签署后勤保障协议。尽管中国在那里有大量投资,北京对此却并未介怀。

近年来印度对北京一直缩手缩脚,却并未因此得到好处。新德里觉察到这点,正试图以更自信(强硬)的态度面对中国。然而,印度应保持谨慎。若新德里想要玩大博弈,就有必要着眼大格局,从大处思考。在中国对“穆罕默德军”首领等问题上,印度投入那么多宝贵外交资源有意义吗?相反,印度真正需要关注的是中国目前进行的大规模军事改革。解放军正在为下一场战争厉兵秣马,而且将通过雄心勃勃的“一带一路”促进该国在经济上大举出击海外。印度需要对此作出反应,特别是在印度洋地区。(作者马于里·穆克杰,乔恒译)

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