(N.B. This Editorial was published, in English, in the Global Times the preceding day, on October 15th. There are some slight changes between the two versions, which might be of interest to some. They are highlighted below as strike-outs for those parts of the English language version not carried in the Chinese one, and italics font for those not in the English Editorial but added in the Chinese one. )
The Presidential election is eroding the US’ overall objectivity as Republicans and Democrats divide the country into two camps. One camp’s main message has only one purpose: to help President Trump’s re-election, while the other camp also has only one purpose: to bring down the Trump administration. Whether describing the epidemic or summarizing the economic situation, both camps are trying to influence the vote. Regardless of the truth, it is more important to get the results first.
Therefore people need to be more careful about what Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that US economic data since May had been “surprisingly strong” and could return to the levels of activity at the business cycle peak before the outbreak of the pandemic after a year, and about the herd immunity strategy devised by the White House and several experts.
The third quarter economic data for the US will be better than the second quarter, which is in fairly broad anticipation. Because the epidemic eased in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, there was some real recovery in the economy. More importantly, the Federal Reserve launched a $2.3 trillion super credit plan, and almost bottomless implementation of quantitative easing, the stock market was “flooded”, if the economic data did not rebound, it is strange.
US economic data for the third quarter is widely expected to be better than the second, since the epidemic in the third quarter was less severe. The economy has recovered somewhat. It would be odd if economic data did not rebound after the almost bottomless implementation of quantitative easing and Federal Reserve had injected $2.3 trillion, and the stock market was pumped up.
However, such economic recovery is like constructing a building on top of sand. The US has just gone through the worst economic recession ever recorded, and the root cause is the novel coronavirus epidemic. The US has not yet found an effective way to control the virus. It has only become more psychologically used to the epidemic, and such thinking is also shaky. The prospect of the pandemic is uncertain. It is highly probable that a new peak of COVID-19 infections will arrive this winter. Will the epidemic get even worse next year? No one knows. Against this backdrop, what has made the Trump administration predict its economy will fully recover from coronavirus in one year?
The Trump administration wants to achieve “herd immunity”. The proposal is sensational. It is equivalent to forcing the whole world to pursue herd immunity. How bloody will the process be? In the US alone, millions of people could die of it. Only societies which are kidnapped by false information and turn mad would welcome such a plan.
Disinformation coming from the US is also impacting the world. Many countries are struggling with the epidemic, but most of them are trying to find ways to solve the problem. The US is the only country that blamed China for its failure to contain the epidemic, seriously promoting the nonsense that “China has harmed the world.” Though this quibble violates common sense and does not constitute a serious issue in the international mainstream, the US has taken the lead in talking nonsense, has disturbed the order and atmosphere of international public opinion, and suppressed people’s understanding of the truth.
The IMF on Tuesday projected that China’s GDP will grow by 1.9 percent in 2020. China will be the only major economy to achieve positive growth this year. China’s growth has reduced the COVID-19’s damage to the global economy, and IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said China was pulling up the global numbers. Obviously, the US has also benefited from China’s COVID-19 fight and economic rebound.
Democracy is supposed to be a good thing, but it has been twisted in today’s America into a great collection of ugly performances and the greatest source of some terrible uncertainty. The primary arena for American democracy is the presidential election, but the pre-election process in the United States, which had no truth, no honesty, no sense of responsibility for the well-being of its own people and for world peace, has certainly increased rather than decreased the world’s insecurity.
Does it make sense to forecast economic growth alone at this point in time? If the United States does not contain the epidemic, there can be no sustainable economic recovery, and any recovery will only be temporary. Objectively speaking, while China, which has the epidemic firmly under control, is still investing enormous efforts to prevent a backlash, the United States is making a poor political decision to allow so many people to be infected and die, and the economy simply cannot expand in such a bloody way in the era of globalization.
Does it make sense to forecast economic growth now without considering the epidemic? If the US cannot rein in the epidemic, there will be no sustainable economic recovery. If there is, the recovery would only be temporary. Objectively speaking, while China, which has firmly put the epidemic under control, is still investing enormous efforts to prevent a possible coronavirus rebound, the Trump administration policies, which have allowed United States is making a poor political decision to allow so many people to be infected and die, are immoral and The US economy simply cannot grow in such a bloody way in the era of globalization
Each country has its own difficulties due to different national conditions, and China has its own problems. However, objectivity comes first, and being realistic creates power. The US, by making false claims, can only make the whole US and probably the international community pay for it the interests of a few people.