An article in India’s National Herald on Dec. 27 (by V V Rao), titled “Pandemic further increases the GDP gap between India and China”.
India had overtaken Britain as the world’s fifth largest economy in 2019, but dropped back to sixth in 2020. A recent report released by the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a British think tank, said India has lost its growth momentum due to the epidemic. It is predicted to be surpassed by the UK again this year.
China, on the other hand, will overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated, due to the two countries’ very different recoveries from the epidemic, CEBR said in its annual ranking of the growth prospects of 193 countries, noting China to be the only major economy in the world to grow in 2020.
The impact of the epidemic on the Indian and Chinese economies is very different. India will not reclaim its position as the fifth largest economy until 2024. In short, China’s economy advances five years and India’s economy regresses five years. This will add 10 years to the gap between the two countries’ GDP per capita.
Article in the Economic Times of Dec. 28 (by Manu Pubby et al), titled “Dealing with the dragon: How India has fared so far against China and the challenge ahead”.
After going through what was perhaps the trickiest year in recent times, India faces a whole new challenge from China in 2021. In terms of hardware and resource mobilization, China has a clear advantage. New Delhi is exploring innovative solutions and alternative technologies to counter PLA’s strength. The way it is working with Japan, Australia, and the United States, among others, is the key to meeting the China challenge. The coming year will be critical in determining what kind of assertiveness India adopts toward China.
December 28, 2020 article on the website of India’s CNBCTV18 (by Hamsini Hariharan) titled “A reflection on the 70th year of (establishment of) bilateral relations between India and China”.
At the beginning of 2020, many people were hopeful about India-China relations. But to everyone’s surprise, relations between the two countries have hit their lowest point in recent years over the past 12 months. In 2021, New Delhi will have to face the difficult question of how to move forward in the relationship between the two countries. It will require multifaceted consideration.
Within India, antagonism toward China is often counterproductive because people do not understand the nuances of foreign policy. Talks at the military level continue, but the root causes of the conflict remain contentious. How to deal with a possible escalation of tensions along the Line of Actual Control is an issue that will have to be faced in 2021. On the economic front, India’s ban on Chinese apps and crackdown on Chinese investment has led to an exodus of companies focusing on technological entrepreneurship. How to balance government intervention, security threat concerns, and much-needed investment? New Delhi should look at the United States and Europe, and don’t let such measures harm its people. A weakened economy will undermine India’s strength. These will lower India’s standing on the global stage.
Today, more than ever, India needs to cultivate a group of people that understands China.