Journal : Global Times (Chinese) Date : Author : NA Page No. : 4
URL : NA

据印度报业托拉斯10日报道,印度中央统计局9日公布最新经济数据显示,根据调整后的国内生产总值(GDP)计算方法,2014/15财年印度经济增速预计达7.4%,有望超过中国的经济发展水平。不过有专家指出,印度的新计算方法可信度低,与其他经济指标显示的印度经济现状不符,新数据“有水分”。

Indian Press Trust posted on 10th that the economic data published by Indian Central Statistics Agency showed that the Indian economic growth is expected to reach 7.4% in Fiscal year 2014/15 by the adjusted computing method, having the potential to proceed the economic developing level of China. Nonetheless, there is specialist pointing out that the new computing method has low reliability, inequivalent to the actual economic condition showing by other economic indicators. The new data is “inflated”.

印度统计部门修改GDP的计算方法,根据市场价格而非要素成本计算,并将基准年份由原来的2004/05年改为2011/12年。在新算法下,印度经济状况喜人:印度2013/14财年的经济增幅达6.9%,大大超过此前公布的4.7%;去年10-12月的经济增速为7.5%,超过中国同期7.3%的水平;统计部门预测2014/15财年(印度财年是每年4月1日至次年3月31日)的经济增速为7.4%,达到中国2014年全年的经济增长水平,此前印度央行预测2014/15财年的经济增速仅为5.5%。

Indian Statistics department adjusted the GDP calculation, computing on the basis of market price instead of the primary cost price, and change the base-year from the original fiscal year 2004/05 to 2011/12. The result of new computing method presented very promising economic condition: the economic growth rate of fiscal year 2013/14 reached 6.9%, greatly exceeded 4.7% which was published before; the economic growth rate of last October to December was 7.5% which exceeded China’s 7.3% in the same period of time; the statistics department predicted the economic growth rate for fiscal year 2014/15 (India fiscal year starts from April 1st to March 31st of the next year) would be 7.4%, reaching the China’s economic growth rate in 2014. Before, India central bank predicted the economic growth rate for fiscal year 2014/15 would only be 5.5%.

印度统计部门称,新方法更符合国际实践,更有助于了解国内实际经济状况。美国《华尔街日报》称,如果印度经济数据真的超过中国,那将说明印度回归,同时也将巩固莫迪政府的执政基础。上个月,世界银行预测印度将在今后两年赶超中国,成为全球经济增长最快的国家。

Indian statistics department claimed that the new computing method could better conform to international practice, and could better conduce to analyze actual national economic condition. The Wall Street Journal of America stated, if the Economic data of India has truly exceeded China, it would account for the return of India and stabilized the political basis of Modi’s government. Last month, the World Bank predicted that India would surpass China in two years and become the country with fastest economic growth rate in the world.

不过印度《第一邮报》10日报道称,印度突然拔高的经济增速弄得该国经济学家“一头雾水”。印度一家评级机构的首席经济学家乔希称,仍在研究数据,以求能够全面理解。印度央行也表示在研究统计方法,拒绝对公布的数据发表评论。印度政府首席经济顾问苏布拉马尼坦言,新的统计方法让人看不懂,并提醒印度政府靠修改后的数据制定经济政策必须小心谨慎。印度商会相关人士对印度报业托拉斯表示,印度经济状况没有数据显示的这么乐观,投资并没有复苏,油价尽管下跌,但也没有拉动多少消费者需求。

Nevertheless, Indian First Post posted on 10th saying that the sudden risen economic growth rate puzzled Indian economists. The chief economist of an Indian rating agency Jothy stated that he was still studying the data trying to understand comprehensively. Indian Central Bank also claimed to be studying the statistical method and refused to comment on the newly published data. The chief economic consultant of Indian government, Subramanian said honestly that the new computing method was confusing, and alerted Indian government to be cautious when making economic policies based on the adjusted data. Associated from Indian business committee expressed to Indian Press Trust that, Indian economic condition is not as optimistic as the data showed, investment has not been revived; even though oil price is decreasing, consumer’s demand has not been brought up.

国外媒体和专家也对印度的经济数据持怀疑态度。路透社称,在数据发布一周前,所有人都认为数据将显示印度经济在莫迪政府上台后仍然步履蹒跚。莫迪去年5月上台前,印度经济增长正经历自上世纪80年代中期以来最疲软的阶段。有经济学家表示,此次公布的数据与其他经济指标不一致,工业生产、贸易、税收等指标均显示经济疲软。美国康奈尔大学教授、前国际货币基金组织亚洲经济学家普拉萨德认为,新数据根本不能成立,与近期印度经济发生的实际状况不符,特别是美联储收紧货币政策引发新兴市场震荡,印度央行因此被迫紧急干预。

Foreign media and specialist also are suspicious of the Indian economic data. Reuters claimed that everyone thought that the data would show the continuing struggle of Indian economics after Modi in charge before it was released. Last May, before Modi took power, the Growth rate of Indian economics was at its slowest point since mid-80s of last century. Some economist pointed out that the recent released data doesn’t conform to other economic indicators; indicators like industrial production, commerce, and tax revenue all showed weak economic condition. In professor of Cornell University, formal Asian economist of International Monetary Fund, Prasad’s consideration, the new data couldn’t even make a sand, it is not in line with the actual economic situation that was happening. Especially the Federal Reserve tightened its monetary policy has caused volatility of emerging market, Indian central bank had to carry out emergency intervention due to this situation.

经济问题专家、复旦大学国际问题研究院教授宋国友10日告诉《环球时报》记者,印度的新GDP算法无法真实反映印度近年来的物价变化情况,由此得出的经济数据有待商榷。物价水平是计算一国国民生产总值的重要变量,国际通行的惯例是用过去10年的物价水平得出一般物价水平。印度将基准年份由2004/05年修改为2011/12年,数据的时间跨度由10年减少为3年,很难真实反映印度经济的通货膨胀状况。

International Studies Institute of Fudan University Professor Song Guoyou, who is also an expert on economics, told reporter of Global Times on the 10th that the new GDP computing method is unable to truly reflect the change of Indian commodity price in recent years, thus the resulting economic data is questionable. Commodity price is an important variable in calculating GDP; the international convention in calculating method uses commodity price from the past ten years to find average commodity price. India uses 2011/12 instead of 2004/05 as basis year shortened the time length of data from 10 to 3 years, which made it very hard for the result to reflect on inflation of Indian economics.

印度经济学家马汉巴尔认为,新算法也会影响过去几年的经济数据。21世纪前10年里,经济增长较快的年份经数据修改后,增速可能高达10%,甚至11%,而不是此前公布的9%,这会改变人们之前对增长潜力和经济周期的分析。有分析人士指出,印度国内现在对提高经济增速的热情极高,印度舆论在1月一度热炒2016年经济增速将超中国。此时,莫迪政府正积极注入乐观情绪,让民众相信经济增长的深度结构化障碍正在逐步消除。对于中印两国经济水平的比较,印度中央统计局局长阿西什·库马尔承认,中国目前的经济规模是印度的4-5倍,即便印度保持7%的增速,也需要20-30年才能赶上中国。

Indian economist Mahan Barr believes that the new computing method would also affect economic data for the past few years. Among the 10 years before 21th century, economic growth rate of better years may achieve 10% or 11% instead of the primary published 9% with adjusted data, which will change people’s analysis on growth potential and business cycle. An analyst pointed out that India has great enthusiasm for rising economic growth rate, had been focusing on the public opinion of surpass Chinese economic growth rate in 2016. At the same time, Modi’s government was injecting optimism to let populace believe the deep structural barrier to economic growth is gradually removed. Comparing economic level between India and China, director of Indian central statistic agency, Ashish Kumar admitted that the economic scale of China is 4 to 5 times as much as India’s, even if India kept growth rate of 7%, it would take 20 to 30 years for it to catch up with China.

印度公布新经济增长数据造成统计迷雾,现在最头疼的恐怕就是印度财长了。路透社称,印度财政部计划2月28日提交政府预算。原先的预算方案包括增加资本开支,为表现不佳的制造业减税。但新数据出台后,将难以估算恢复经济活力到底需要多大规模的财政刺激。

The one person worries most about the statistic confusion caused by newly published Indian economic growth rate must be Indian minister of finance. Reuters states that Indian financial department is planning on submiting government budget early on Feb 28th. The original budget plan includes increase in capital expenditure, reduce tax for poorly performed manufacture industry. But after the publish of new data, it is hard to estimate the scale of fiscal incentive needed for recovering economic vitality.

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