We analyze the external factors that holds back India as a big country in the viewpoint of geopolitics from last article of Red Think Tank. However, the dilemma with which it is confronted by India may go further than that. Only for the internal, it has been outmoded already. But it forms a major threat for the modernization of this country with an ancient civilization, due to the social structure it is hard to update accordingly. Here, let’s analyze the risk and dilemma when modern Indian suddenly appears on the horizon from the viewpoint of history and international relation.
分裂的政治传统 Disrupt political tradition
India sets up the resplendent civilization for thousand years, and possesses the long history that may rival other primary civilization globally as the natural dominator in the South Asian Sub-Continent. Nevertheless, differed from other ancient civilization with the same mass, the grand unicentral stable political pattern fails to be formed in Indian history of civilization development. After the development and growth in some of the classical civilizations like China, Rome, Arab etc., marched toward the imperial system in succession. However, the Indian civilization is always in the splitting status. It is only a flash in the pan although unification sometimes. Such kind of splitting pattern is strange during the development period of the civilization of ancient India and the close communication with countries in South Asia internally.
当然，古代印度之所以分裂，也自有其理由。从地缘格局上看，南亚次大陆以东为缅甸的密林；北部为高不可攀的喜马拉雅山脉和环境恶劣的青藏高原；西部，跨 过印度河流域，便是兴都库什山脉；它们的存在，为南亚次大陆提供了充分的保护。至于南面的大海，虽然无法阻挡海上势力，但海洋文明的商业特质，使它们即便 进入印度，也更注重于物质利益的攫取，而非对领土的占有（比如早先的阿拉伯和后期的葡萄牙、乃至英国），因此无法对印度文明造成颠覆性影响。
Of course, there are some reasons for the splitting of ancient India. Seen from the geographical pattern, the east to the South Asian Subcontinent is the Burmese jungle; and the north is the unattainable Himalayas. and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with it’s wicked environment; and the west, it is the Hindu Kush Mountains when we look across from the Indus Valley; the existence provide enough protection for the South Asian Sub-Continent. As for the ocean in the south, although it fails to stop the sea power, due to the commercial characteristic of maritime civilization, they pay more attentions to seize the material interests and neglect providing occupation to the territory (for example, Arab in the past, and later, Portugal and even England) even if they entered India, consequently, it cannot result in the subversive influence on Indian civilization.
Under this close environment, the motive power of expanding the territory continuously is lost after the Indian civilization covers the whole South Asian Sub-Continent (From the viewpoint of agrarian age, all of the territories around the South Asian Sub-Continent lack development value). However, unlike China, there should be some uninterrupted external pressure that can cope with the resources intensively (for a long term, the agriculture civilization of the ancient China has been facing invasion of nomadic civilization beyond the Great Wall) with grand unification being the method.
India has some threat externally of course. It is easy to climb over the Hindu Kush Mountains while compare with the unattainable Himalayas. But the nomadic civilization there is a natural enemy to the agricultural civilization.
Even though the ancient India suffers from the invasion of nomadic civilization of Central Asia periodically, it hasn’t threatened the independence of the Indian civilization at all. In addition to the original strength of the civilization of ancient India, the existence of this result is of a certain relationship with the geographical location in comparison to Central Asia which is considered as the traffic island in mainland.
Central Asia is located at the interior geographical position of Eurasian continent, enabling it to be the midpoint for all geographical powers in Asian, like the East Asian continent, the Mongolian Plateau, the South Asian Sub-Continent, the Persia Plateau, and the Mesopotamia plain, etc. Because of tigers and wolfs in the surrounding, Central Asia is hard to exist as an independent geographical plate, but can only be winners after various civilizations end their competition.
Central Asia only exists in the remote past regardless of China, Mongolia in East Asia or Persia, Arab in West Asia. Central Asia kept away from the core area of each geographical power, this would remain weak and unstable even if it were to be occupied by another country, only because at any point the occupants would decline for other geographical powers to comeback.
The weakness and chaos in Central Asia not only reduce the probability of invasion, but the rulers who conquer India by chance, have to face such hurdles: due to lack of strong and stable geographical power as the support, they fail to carry out the fundamental reform for Indian civilization instead of aiming at India’s current position, they have to adjust themselves and maintain their dominant positions that were hard to obtain previously. The result is to blend in Indian civilization finally.
Under this condition, nobody is willing to make great deals or suffering from the great calamity, the internecine struggle is the instinctive selection of all organization. For this broad environment, due to the self-interest, all countries in the geographical plate of South Asian Sub-Continent naturally and continuously battle with each other, eventually forming the splitting political pattern.
It is this splitting political tradition that enable India to easily establish the modern western democratic system characterized by the check and balance after India founded its own country in 1948. But enormous problems generate when Indian economy shifts from the traditional agriculture civilization to the modern industrial civilization:
While making a general survey of all developed economic entities in the world, during the stride toward the industrial society, irrespective of England, France, America or Germany or Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Although their political systems have progress, it still has some strong characteristic of authority. The range of participation is only limited to the elite class even if there is the so-called check and balance.
Because it will inevitably generate some issues such as enclosure movement, sweat shops, environment pollution and so on during the industrial expansion, which seriously infringes the public interest, only by means of powerful political authority, the dissatisfaction can be suppressed, and the implementation will be made forcefully. Only when the industrialization is finished, and the above problems fade away gradually, the modern democratic system involving to the whole people can be carried out.
However, differed from the West, when India is building up the modern democratic political system, the foundation of the national economy is still in the traditional farming state. The advancing political system results in tremendous hinder for the economic development in India: all of the industrial projects that is conducive to the economic accumulation and transformation are opposed by the Indian people due to its own negative effects, which is rapidly enlarged by the waves of the modern media additionally.
Under the political framework of modern democratic system, striving for the votes, the Indian politicians only cater to the people’s will without the bottom line, and they fail to carry it out by the forceful central power just like the politicians of Korea, Taiwan in the times of authority and the politicians of China later, which results that India missed several historical development opportunities in the second half of the 20th century in succession, so the economic structure fails to transform slowly. (by Red Think Tank) Similarly, the early adoption of western democratic system also results in the weakness of central power and each authority does things in their own ways locally. So the nationwide infrastructure construction and industrial planning layout cannot be carried out and the national economy is fragmented after it reflects to the level of economy.
印度教与种姓制度 Hinduism and caste system
According to different family background, the Indian society is divided into four classes: Brahman, Kshatriya, Vaishya, and Sudra; besides, there are “people of a lower social status than common people” who are abandoned by these four classes. For these classes, their occupation and position are widely different. The Brahman and Kshatriya with high caste occupy the vast majority of the national resources, but theVaishya and Sudra are the people from a lower social status who occupy the vast majority of population and live in the bottom of the society.
Although this pyramid social structure is not only the patent of India, what differs from other civilizations is this social structure that is solidified by the form of caste system in Indian civilization.
In other civilizations of ancient China and so on, the people from the lower social status may would be accepted by the society, thus improve their own class status by attending schools, fighting, doing business and working hard.
But the Indian classification of status is completely decided by the innate factor of family background. Regardless of an individual’s’ hard work the class status cannot be changed once you are born into it. In other words, no matter how hardworking they fail to ascend to the noble classes such as Brahman’s and Kshatriyas.
However, people’s instinct is to pursue good life. The caste system interdicts the possibility that the vast majority of Indians want to change their fate, which will be detested and opposed inevitably. However, the Indian civilization defuses it by means of using religion.
The doctrine of Hinduism highly praises the reincarnation. It takes the suffering of this life to be the requirement to obtain happiness. Under the edification of Hinduism, the people in lower class gradually give up the defiance in the realistic society, just to look forward to the next life after the death; as they want to increase the probability of obtaining happiness in the next life by means of penance.
种姓制度和印度教的结合，使印度社会的阶级彻底固化。这种社会结构的好处，是有效减少了阶级冲突，维护了社会稳定。中国历史上屡见不鲜的阶级战争（农民 VS地主、资产阶级VS地主；无产阶级VS资产阶级+地主）在印度极少发生。但坏处则是：由于缺乏上升的渠道，占人口绝大多数的印度下层阶级，也就丧失了 通过努力学习和工作，来改变自身命运的动力，变成得过且过的“混日子”一族。当“愚昧”、“慵懒”、“散漫”成为低种姓的代名词后，印度也就丧失了通过发 展大规模制造业迈向工业社会的可能。
The combination of caste system and Hinduism thoroughly solidified the social class in India. The advantage of this social structure was to reduce the class conflict effectively, and maintain the social stability. The class battles in Chinese history that occurred commonly happen in India too (the peasant VS the landlord, the bourgeoisie VS the landlord, and the proletariat VS the bourgeoisie + the landlord). But the disadvantage is: the lower class with vast majority of population loses the power to changing their own fate by working hard and studying due to the lack of ascending channels, so they become the people who are lazing away. When “ignorance”, “laziness” and “sloppiness” become the common terms of the low caste, India loses the possibility to move forward to the industrial society by the development of large-scale manufacturing industry.
政治改革的必要性 Necessity of political reform
In the past few decades, India has got the software outsourcing successfully. However, as a short industrial chain (no need for too many supporting industries), little labor demand (only for millions of peoples’ employment, and the scale of less than dozens of ten billions USD), it is hard to bring this mass to modernization. The only way of modernizing is to develop the manufacturing industry for a country with one billion population.
Large amount of qualified labor force is needed for large-scale industrial manufacture. However, to achieve this purpose, India must eliminate the influence of the caste system thoroughly, allow the low caste and people of a lower social status to climb the social ladder, and enable them to change their fate by study and working and other means.
When the class barrier is broken, Indians can have the desire to gain a good life possibly, the people can be contending with poverty, and the doctrine of Hinduism loses its social foundation, and is replaced by worshipping money.
Driven by money, the low caste and the people of a lower social status in India finally become involved in the industrialized flood current. However, at the same time, the indelible adverse impact during the industrialization has an impact on (especially in the early and middle stages) impressing of lands, house removal, environment pollution, occupational disease, low wages and long-time labor, thus triggering people’s anger and resistance accordingly.
For the Indian government, it is a necessity to suppress the public’s dissatisfaction; else, the industrialization cannot be recognized. But under the framework of modern democratic system, the politicians who are elected by votes fail to make this purpose come true. If they want to unfasten this dilemma, the only method is to reform the political system and realize the centralization.
政改的内战风险 Civil war risk of political reform
中央集权的过程，必然引发政治势力的重新洗牌。考虑到印度的政治架构，没有任何一方政治势力，能够让其他对手放手退出。要想解决这一难题，印度只有两条 路可选：要么政治势力间直接发起内战，用武力消灭其他势力；要么跳出派系争斗，放下身段争取占人口绝大多数的低种姓和贱民的铁心拥护，通过壮大基本盘的方 式，逼迫保守势力出局。
The process of authority centralization inevitably triggers the reshuffle of the political power. In consideration of the political framework of India, no other political power can give in to other rivals. India only has two ways for resolving this problem: either the political power directly or indirectly launch civil war and wipes out other power by force, or jump out from the factions struggle, and strives for the heartfelt supports of the low caste and people of the lower social status who occupy the vast majority of population, and then compel the conservative force to move out by expansion of basic power.
At a first glance, it is not a good choice for civil war among the factions. But if the second way is adopted, it means that this political power will stand by the lower class. Once the power is grasped, they must deprive the interest of the upper class who grasps the social resources, thus trigger the intensive opposition. In view of the irreconcilability of interest, both parties’ conflict must be becoming increasingly fierce. Thus the civic war among the factions may be avoided, but the class war very likely happens. (In cases of reality, the conflict is between the Indian Communist Party and the government. Once large-scale industrialization is launched, the Indian Communist Party will get extensive social foundation.)
种族对抗与宗教冲突。Race rivalry and religious conflict.
The race of India roughly can be divided to be three parts: Hindustanis who are evolved by Aryans who migrated from Central Asia in the early stage (that is the Indian white people); indigenous Dravidians (that is Indian black people); and Mongoloids who occupy fairly proportions in the Northeast (that is the Yellow race).
The both castes of Brahman and Kshatriya basically consist of the Hindustanis with minority of population due to the reason of history, and Hindustanis and the Yellow race with vast majority of population basically belong to the low caste and people of a lower social status.
So far, various resources in Indian society are still controlled by the Indian white people with high caste, and the Indian black people and the Yellow race are in the state of being governed basically. (Red Think Tank) Under normal conditions, this unequal social structure obviously must result in the racial conflict. But in the civilization development history for thousands of years, Indians have successfully avoided rivalry amongst the races, which is a miracle.
而印度之所以能成为例外，固化阶级的种姓制度，和鼓吹放弃今生以求来世的印度教义居功至伟。（发源于印度的佛教，由于宣扬众生平等，不利于印度种族阶级 社会的稳定，逐渐在当地走向消亡）一旦这二者被清除，处于社会中下层的达罗毗荼人和黄种人的种族意识将被激活，并在拜金主义的诱惑下，对占据社会资源的印度斯坦人产生种族仇恨，肤色的不同更让这种冲突加倍激化。而随着大规模工业化的展开，主要的印度斯坦人构成的资本家，与主要由达罗毗荼人以及黄种人构成的 工人阶级之间的冲突将愈演愈烈。阶级矛盾和种族矛盾合二为一后所迸发出的力量，足以将印度搅的天翻地覆！
Nevertheless, the reason why Indians can be an exception is because the caste system of solidified class and the doctrine of Hinduism which is advocated and claimed highly of (it originates from the Buddhism in India, but it gradually dies out locally because the advocacy of life equal goes against the social stability of Indian race class). Once both are eliminated, the racial consciousness of the Dravidians and the Yellow people who are in the lower class in the society will be activated, and generate racial hatred toward the Hindustanis who occupy the social resources after tempted by money worship, the difference of skin color even intensifies this conflict. However, with the development of large-scale industrialization, the conflict between the capitalists who are formed by the Hindustanis primarily and the working class who is mainly formed by the Dravidians and the Yellow people will become increasingly fierce. The power that combined and generated by the class contradiction and ethnic conflict will overturn Indian enough.
宗教矛盾也是印度政治改革潜在威胁。印度境内有总数多达一亿的穆斯林。他们独立于印度教体系之外，但与黄种人和达罗毗荼人一样，处于社会的中下阶级。虽 然当下，印度教的强大力量足以压制占人口少数的穆斯林。但如果印度教瓦解，印度社会陷入纷争，穆斯林为争取自身权益，也不可避免的会卷入其中，进而加深印 度的混乱。
This religious conflict is also a potential threat for India’s political reform. In the territory of India, there are one hundred million Muslims. They are independent out from the Hinduism system, but same as the Yellow people and Dravidians, they are in the lower and middle classes in the society. Although, currently, the strong power of Hinduism is enough to suppress the Muslims with minority population, Indian society will be caught in disputes if Hinduism collapses, and Muslims will revolve in it inevitably, causing chaos in India because Muslims are striving for their own rights and interests.
Because multiple elements are interlaced together, such as system, class, race and religion, the industrial road is becoming difficult in India, which might face deep danger even if handled slightly careless.
印度现代化的外部威胁 External threat of modernization in India
The resentment between Pakistan and India is known all over the world. They were both in integrity at some point before the splitting was caused deliberately by England, tracing the source, this conflict between the Hinduism and Islamism, and even the whole civilization system, and the geographical games among the Indus River, Bangladesh and the Ganges River.
By fighting of wars between Pakistan and India, India succeeded in facilitating the splitting between Bangladesh and Pakistan, but the wars deepened the hatred between Pakistan and India. However, the issue of Kashmir is still the fast knot that cannot be undone by the both countries. Even though the relation between Pakistan and India may move toward for a relief one day, the contradictions in history, religion and geographical structure there will prevail long-term conflict between the both countries.
In the geographical strength, since the Ganges River is stronger than the Indus River, Pakistan is bound to be in downwind in this rivalry. But if India has civil strife, Pakistan will naturally seize the opportunity of paying off old scores.
As we known above, once India’s modern reform is launched, the chaos is almost hard to avoid and uncontrollable with great possibilities due to the internal structural contradiction. Once this happens, Pakistan must fish in troubled waters (the specific practice is to loot and control Kashmir, and provide supports for the Muslim in the territory of India), which seems to pour oil on the flames for India, and it very likely to trigger the overall collapse.
A stable external environment is a necessary condition for carrying out the reform. But the existence of Pakistan makes India hard to realize this goal. It is certainly a good idea to wipe out Pakistan, but the restriction of political orders internationally, and Pakistan’s strength and the supporters of China and Islamic world make India fail to subdue it thoroughly.
So there is a tough mortal enemy nearby, which even increase the difficulty of modern reform in India.
By the analysis on ‘A Miss with Fate of Servant A Girl’, we have known that: China supports the great dream of India. But such a support is for the consideration of self-interest, it hopes that India, with strong power, can share the pressure of rising sharply, and finally end the hegemony of America in the Indian Ocean. However, if India fails, China’s standpoint will change essentially.
Even if China will support the progress of the modernization of India, if this process fails eventually, China will be an illusion in this strategic conception. Under this circumstance, to maintain the interest in the Indian Ocean, China only attends to the matter personally.
Because there are ten thousands miles between the mainland and the Indian Ocean, China should find a proper geographical plate as the support in the region if we want to stand firmly in the Indian Ocean (especially obtain the strategic advantage with regard to America). In consideration of geographical environment and geographical relationship, undoubtedly, it will be the most appropriate if control on the Bangladesh is taken care of by the Bay of Bengal.
In view that China is too far away from Bangladesh in the sea route. To reinforce the geographical influence in this region, China must break through the land channel between them, and make sure the control to this channel. Based upon this strategy, China’s goal is to connect Bangladesh and India’s northeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.
Seen from the geographical structure, the northeast almost is another plate for India (only the Siliguri Corridor that closes to the Himalayas connects to the Northern India), however, it is relatively closer to Yunnan in geographical relationship. The Yellow people who emigrated from the East Asia occupy a fairly portion locally. These factors result in serious local separation creating the condition for China’s strategy.
Of course, if India exists in normal integrity, China dare not think about the northeast (there is no necessity). But, if India is caught in the civil strife, China will not scruple its thinking any more.
Under the condition of civil strife in India, as for the northeast where they can get China’s support, the independence cannot be stopped almost. However, after the independence, the new government must stand by China to withstand India’s pressure.
The independence in the northeast is disastrous to strike India. Firstly, China will recapture the southern Tibet, and expand the influence sphere to the Bay of Bengal (under this situation, except for standing by China, Bangladesh has no ideas). Meanwhile, China will suppress India comprehensively
In consideration of controlling the Bay of Bengal and Malacca, China may occupy Andaman Islands; to prevent Indian’s comeback, China very likely control Calcutta in the Ganges River, and help Nepal and Bhutan to get rid of Indian’s control, even drive Sikkim to recover the country, and support Pakistan’s strategy, thus form the comprehensive strategic suppressing on India.
America also will join in the fighting for India.
American impossibly allows China’s strength to enter South Asia. But in view that the influence of this region comes from the sea (take the Diego Garcia of the Indian Ocean as the base), it has a heart but no strength to the Chinese strategy that launched toward the mainland.
但美国也不可能对作壁上观。将孟加拉板块划入势力范围后的中国，将取得压倒性的对美战略优势（作为印度洋基地的迪亚加戈西岛面积不过二十六平方公里，用 以压制一般国家尚可，当对手是中国这种重量级国家时，支撑博弈的战略空间严重不足）。在这种情况下，美国无论愿意与否，只能趁着印度混乱，也寻找一个合适 的地缘板块，扶植独立的亲美政权，以应对中国的威胁。（综合各方面考虑，辐射阿拉伯海的孟买——古吉拉特板块或是最合适的选择）。如此一来，印度将彻底分 裂，沦为中美等大国势力的竞技场。
However, America will not be an onlooker. After China wipes the Bangladesh plate in the influence sphere, China will take the overwhelming strategic advantage (the area of the Diego Garcia of the Indian Ocean is only twenty six square kilometers, which can suppress ordinary countries, however, the strategy space of supporting the game is not enough seriously when the rival is China). Under this circumstance, whether America is willing or not, it only seeks for a proper geographical plate with the opportunity of chaos in India, and then fosters the independent pro-American regime, so as to tackle with the threat from China. (After consider from various aspects, it may be the best choice to radiate Bombay in Arabian Sea – Gujarat plate). So India will split thoroughly, and become the arena of China and America and other countries with great power.
If India isn’t in chaos, this condition will not happen absolutely. But in case India is caught in the civil strife, India has no idea how to stop it, only at other’s service.
India understands the result of the civil strife of course. But in view of the complicated national condition, India cannot make sure that the civil strife doesn’t happen in the modernization process. Under this dilemma, India’s modernization reform only shows as a form for a long term. It concerns to this ancient civilization’s continuity and survival and downfall whether a real peaceful and developing road can be found or not.