Journal : Red Think tank Date : Author : Yun Shi Page No. : NA
URL : http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3NDkyNTcxOQ==&mid=400065951&idx=4&sn=9765f63591a929c8722c19353c6f5b12&scene=5&srcid=1021oOocKTqOz4htU0fkBmfS#rd 云石:印度为什么超越不了中国?

云石:印度为什么超越不了中国?

红德智库在上一篇中,我们从地缘政治角度分析了阻止你印度成为大国的外部因素。但印度面临的困境恐怕还不止于此。仅就其内部而言,早已过时,却又难以更新的社会结 构,也对这个文明古国的现代化,构成重大的威胁。在此,不妨从历史和国际关系角度,分析现代印度崛起过程中的风险和困境。

We analyze the external factors that holds back India as a big country in the viewpoint of geopolitics from last article of Red Think Tank. However, the dilemma with which it is confronted by India may go further than that. Only for the internal, it has been outmoded already. But it forms a major threat for the modernization of this country with an ancient civilization, due to the social structure it is hard to update accordingly. Here, let’s analyze the risk and dilemma when modern Indian suddenly appears on the horizon from the viewpoint of history and international relation.

分裂的政治传统 Disrupt political tradition

作为南亚次大陆的天然主宰者,印度有着与世界其他主要文明相媲美的悠久历史,并建立了延续千年的璀璨文明。但与其他拥有相同体量的古老文明不同,在印度 文明的扩张史中,并没有形成大一统的稳定政治格局。中国、罗马、阿拉伯等古典文明,在其发展壮大后,纷纷迈向帝国体制。而印度文明却始终处于邦国林立的分裂状态,即便偶有统一,也只不过是昙花一现。考虑到古代印度文明的发达水平,以及南亚地缘板块内部的紧密联系,这种分裂格局多少有些另类。

India sets up the resplendent civilization for thousand years, and possesses the long history that may rival other primary civilization globally as the natural dominator in the South Asian Sub-Continent. Nevertheless, differed from other ancient civilization with the same mass, the grand unicentral stable political pattern fails to be formed in Indian history of civilization development. After the development and growth in some of the classical civilizations like China, Rome, Arab etc., marched toward the imperial system in succession. However, the Indian civilization is always in the splitting status. It is only a flash in the pan although unification sometimes. Such kind of splitting pattern is strange during the development period of the civilization of ancient India and the close communication with countries in South Asia internally.

当然,古代印度之所以分裂,也自有其理由。从地缘格局上看,南亚次大陆以东为缅甸的密林;北部为高不可攀的喜马拉雅山脉和环境恶劣的青藏高原;西部,跨 过印度河流域,便是兴都库什山脉;它们的存在,为南亚次大陆提供了充分的保护。至于南面的大海,虽然无法阻挡海上势力,但海洋文明的商业特质,使它们即便 进入印度,也更注重于物质利益的攫取,而非对领土的占有(比如早先的阿拉伯和后期的葡萄牙、乃至英国),因此无法对印度文明造成颠覆性影响。

Of course, there are some reasons for the splitting of ancient India. Seen from the geographical pattern, the east to the South Asian Subcontinent is the Burmese jungle; and the north is the unattainable Himalayas.  and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with it’s wicked environment; and the west, it is the Hindu Kush Mountains when we look across from the Indus Valley; the existence provide enough protection for the South Asian Sub-Continent. As for the ocean in the south, although it fails to stop the sea power, due to the commercial characteristic of maritime civilization, they pay more attentions to seize the material interests and neglect providing occupation to the territory (for example, Arab in the past, and later, Portugal and even England) even if they entered India, consequently, it cannot result in the subversive influence on Indian civilization.

在这种封闭的环境下,当印度文明覆盖整个南亚次大陆后,便丧失了继续扩张领土的动力(以农耕时代的观点看,南亚次大陆周边的土地均缺乏开发价值)。而它 又不像中国那样,有必须持续应对的外来压力(华夏农耕文明长期面对塞外游牧文明的侵袭),以致必须用大一统的方式,来集中资源应对。

Under this close environment, the motive power of expanding the territory continuously is lost after the Indian civilization covers the whole South Asian Sub-Continent (From the viewpoint of agrarian age, all of the territories around the South Asian Sub-Continent lack development value). However, unlike China, there should be some uninterrupted external pressure that can cope with the resources intensively (for a long term, the agriculture civilization of the ancient China has been facing invasion of nomadic civilization beyond the Great Wall) with grand unification being the method.

当然,印度也不全是没有外来威胁。相比喜马拉雅山脉的高不可攀,翻越兴都库什山脉还是容易的多。而山那头的游牧文明,更是农耕文明的天敌。

India has some threat externally of course. It is easy to climb over the Hindu Kush Mountains while compare with the unattainable Himalayas. But the nomadic civilization there is a natural enemy to the agricultural civilization.

不过,尽古代印度会周期性的遭受中亚游牧文明的入侵,但却并未对印度文明的独立性构成根本威胁。而这种结果的存在,除了古代印度文明的不俗实力外,也与中亚作为大陆交通岛的地理位置不无关系。

Even though the ancient India suffers from the invasion of nomadic civilization of Central Asia periodically, it hasn’t threatened the independence of the Indian civilization at all. In addition to the original strength of the civilization of ancient India, the existence of this result is of a certain relationship with the geographical location in comparison to Central Asia which is considered as the traffic island in mainland.

中亚身处亚欧大陆腹地的地理位置,使其成为东亚大陆、蒙古高原、南亚次大陆、波斯高原、两河平原等亚洲各大地缘势力的交锋之地。虎狼环伺的周边环境,使中亚难以作为一个独立的地缘板块存在,而只能在各大文明交锋结束后,成为胜者的附庸。

Central Asia is located at the interior geographical position of Eurasian continent, enabling it to be the midpoint for all geographical powers in Asian, like the East Asian continent, the Mongolian Plateau, the South Asian Sub-Continent, the Persia Plateau, and the Mesopotamia plain, etc. Because of tigers and wolfs in the surrounding, Central Asia is hard to exist as an independent geographical plate, but can only be winners after various civilizations end their competition.

只是,无论对东亚的中国、蒙古,还是西亚的波斯、阿拉伯,中亚都是过于遥远的存在。由于远离各大地缘势力的核心区,中亚即便被一方占领,这种统治也是虚弱而不稳定的,随时会因为占领者的衰落或其他地缘势力的卷土重来而发生改变。

Central Asia only exists in the remote past regardless of China, Mongolia in East Asia or Persia, Arab in West Asia. Central Asia kept away from the core area of each geographical power, this would remain weak and unstable even if it were to be occupied by another country, only because at any point the occupants would decline for other geographical powers to comeback.

中亚的虚弱和混乱,既大大降低了印度遭受入侵的机率,也使得有幸征服印度的统治者,不得不面临这样一个难题:由于身后缺乏强大而稳定的地缘板块作为支 撑,使他们无力对印度文明进行根本性改造,反倒不得不针对印度实情,对自身进行调整,以维护得来不易的统治地位。其最终结果就是融入印度文明。

The weakness and chaos in Central Asia not only reduce the probability of invasion, but the rulers who conquer India by chance, have to face such hurdles: due to lack of strong and stable geographical power as the support, they fail to carry out the fundamental reform for Indian civilization instead of aiming at India’s current position, they have to adjust themselves and maintain their dominant positions that were hard to obtain previously. The result is to blend in Indian civilization finally.

在这种既无意愿做大蛋糕,也不至于遭受灭顶之灾的情况下,窝里斗,几乎是所有组织的本能选择。在这种大环境下,南亚次大陆内部的各次级地缘板块自然而然的因自身利益持续争斗,最终形成了分裂的政治格局。

Under this condition, nobody is willing to make great deals or suffering from the great calamity, the internecine struggle is the instinctive selection of all organization. For this broad environment, due to the self-interest, all countries in the geographical plate of South Asian Sub-Continent naturally and continuously battle with each other, eventually forming the splitting political pattern.

正是这种分裂的政治传统,使印度于1948年建国后,很容易便建立了以分权制衡为特征的现代西方民主制度。但当印度经济从传统农耕文明向现代工业文明转型时,却产生了巨大的问题:

It is this splitting political tradition that enable India to easily establish the modern western democratic system characterized by the check and balance after India founded its own country in 1948. But enormous problems generate when Indian economy shifts from the traditional agriculture civilization to the modern industrial civilization:

纵观世界各发达经济体,无论是早期的英法美德,还是后期的日本、韩国、台湾,在迈向工业社会的过程中,其政治体制虽有进步,但仍带有强烈的威权色彩。即便有所谓的分权制衡,其参与范围也只限于精英阶层。

While making a general survey of all developed economic entities in the world, during the stride toward the industrial society, irrespective of England, France, America or Germany  or Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Although their political systems have progress, it still has some strong characteristic of authority. The range of participation is only limited to the elite class even if there is the so-called check and balance.

之所以如此,是因为工业扩张中,不可避免的会产生诸如圈地运动、血汗工厂、环境污染等问题,严重侵犯了普罗大众的利益。只有通过强大的政治威权,才能压制不满,强力推行。只有当工业化完成,上述问题逐渐消失,波及全民的现代民主制度才有了实施的可能。

Because it will inevitably generate some issues such as enclosure movement, sweat shops, environment pollution and so on during the industrial expansion, which seriously infringes the public interest, only by means of powerful political authority, the dissatisfaction can be suppressed, and the implementation will be made forcefully. Only when the industrialization is finished, and the above problems fade away gradually, the modern democratic system involving to the whole people can be carried out.

而与西方不同,印度在建立现代民主政治制度之时,国家经济基础仍处于传统的农耕状态。这种政治制度的超前,对印度经济的发展造成了巨大的阻碍:任何有助于经济积累和转型的工业项目,因其本身所连带的负面影响,招致印度人民的坚决反对,并在现代媒体的推波助澜下被迅速放大。

However, differed from the West, when India is building up the modern democratic political system, the foundation of the national economy is still in the traditional farming state. The advancing political system results in tremendous hinder for the economic development in India: all of the industrial projects that is conducive to the economic accumulation and transformation are opposed by the Indian people due to its own negative effects, which is rapidly enlarged by the waves of the modern media additionally.

在现代民主制度这一政治框架下,印度政客为争取选票,只能无底线的迎合群众意愿,无法像威权时代的韩国、台湾和后来的中国政治家一样,用强有力的中央权力将其推行下去,这导致印度接连错过20世纪后半页的几次历史发展机遇,经济结构迟迟无法转型。红德智库而同样,过早采用西方民主制度,也导致了中央权力的薄弱和地方的各自为政,反映到经济层面,就是全国性的基础设施建设和产业规划布局无法进行,国家经济支离破碎。

Under the political framework of modern democratic system, striving for the votes, the Indian politicians only cater to the people’s will without the bottom line, and they fail to carry it out by the forceful central power just like the politicians of Korea, Taiwan in the times of authority and the politicians of China later, which results that India missed several historical development opportunities in the second half of the 20th century in succession, so the economic structure fails to transform slowly. (by Red Think Tank) Similarly, the early adoption of western democratic system also results in the weakness of central power and each authority does things in their own ways locally. So the nationwide infrastructure construction and industrial planning layout cannot be carried out and the national economy is fragmented after it reflects to the level of economy.

印度教与种姓制度 Hinduism and caste system

印度社会根据出身不同,将人分为婆罗门、刹帝利、犬舍、首陀罗四大阶级,另外还有摒弃于四大阶级之外的“贱民”。不同阶级职业不同、地位迥异。处于高种姓的婆罗门与刹帝利,占据了绝大部分国家资源,而占人口绝大部分的首陀罗、犬舍以及贱民,则生活在社会的底层。

According to different family background, the Indian society is divided into four classes: Brahman, Kshatriya, Vaishya, and Sudra; besides, there are “people of a lower social status than common people” who are abandoned by these four classes. For these classes, their occupation and position are widely different. The Brahman and Kshatriya with high caste occupy the vast majority of the national resources, but theVaishya and Sudra are the people from a lower social status who occupy the vast majority of population and live in the bottom of the society.

虽然这种金字塔型社会结构并非印度专利,但与其他文明不同的是,印度文明中,这种社会结构被以种姓制度的形式加以固化。

Although this pyramid social structure is not only the patent of India, what differs from other civilizations is this social structure that is solidified by the form of caste system in Indian civilization.

在华夏等其他文明中,下等阶级的人,可以通过读书、作战、经商等后天努力的方式,得到社会的认可,从而提升自己的阶级地位。

In other civilizations of ancient China and so on, the people from the lower social status may would be accepted by the society, thus improve their own class status by attending schools, fighting, doing business and working hard.

而印度人的阶级地位则完全由出身这个先天因素决定。出生之后,无论个人如何努力,阶级地位都不能改变。也就是说,无论低种姓多么努力,他们也无法跻身于婆罗门、刹帝利等高贵阶级当中。

But the Indian classification of status is completely decided by the innate factor of family background. Regardless of an individual’s’ hard work the class status cannot be changed once you are born into it. In other words, no matter how hardworking they fail to ascend to the noble classes such as Brahman’s and Kshatriyas.

只是,追求美好生活是人的本能。种姓制度阻断了绝大部分印度人改变命运的可能,必然会招致他们的愤恨和反对。对此,印度文明采用宗教的方式加以化解。

However, people’s instinct is to pursue good life. The caste system interdicts the possibility that the vast majority of Indians want to change their fate, which will be detested and opposed inevitably. However, the Indian civilization defuses it by means of using religion.

印度教教义推崇转世,将今生的苦难,作为来世获取幸福的必要条件。在印度教义的熏陶下,下层阶级逐渐放弃了现实社会中的反抗,而寄往于来世,甚至通过苦修,来增加转世获取幸福的几率。

The doctrine of Hinduism highly praises the reincarnation. It takes the suffering of this life to be the requirement to obtain happiness. Under the edification of Hinduism, the people in lower class gradually give up the defiance in the realistic society, just to look forward to the next life after the death; as they want to increase the probability of obtaining happiness in the next life by means of penance.

种姓制度和印度教的结合,使印度社会的阶级彻底固化。这种社会结构的好处,是有效减少了阶级冲突,维护了社会稳定。中国历史上屡见不鲜的阶级战争(农民 VS地主、资产阶级VS地主;无产阶级VS资产阶级+地主)在印度极少发生。但坏处则是:由于缺乏上升的渠道,占人口绝大多数的印度下层阶级,也就丧失了 通过努力学习和工作,来改变自身命运的动力,变成得过且过的“混日子”一族。当“愚昧”、“慵懒”、“散漫”成为低种姓的代名词后,印度也就丧失了通过发 展大规模制造业迈向工业社会的可能。

The combination of caste system and Hinduism thoroughly solidified the social class in India. The advantage of this social structure was to reduce the class conflict effectively, and maintain the social stability. The class battles in Chinese history that occurred commonly happen in India too (the peasant VS the landlord, the bourgeoisie VS the landlord, and the proletariat VS the bourgeoisie + the landlord). But the disadvantage is: the lower class with vast majority of population loses the power to changing their own fate by working hard and studying due to the lack of ascending channels, so they become the people who are lazing away. When “ignorance”, “laziness” and “sloppiness” become the common terms of the low caste, India loses the possibility to move forward to the industrial society by the development of large-scale manufacturing industry.

政治改革的必要性 Necessity of political reform

在过去的几十年中,印度拿下了软件外包业,并获得了成功。只是,这样一个产业链短(不需要太多配套产业)、劳动力需求小(只能容纳百万人口级的就业、总 共不过几百亿美金的规模)的产业,是无法将印度这种体量的国家带入现代化的。作为一个十亿人口级别的国家,发展制造业,是其现代化的唯一出路。

In the past few decades, India has got the software outsourcing successfully. However, as a short industrial chain (no need for too many supporting industries), little labor demand (only for millions of peoples’ employment, and the scale of less than dozens of ten billions USD), it is hard to bring this mass to modernization. The only way of modernizing is to develop the manufacturing industry for a country with one billion population.

大规模的工业制造需要大批合格的劳动力。而要达成这一目的,印度必须彻底清除种姓制度的影响,给予低种姓和贱民阶级足够的上升空间,使他们能够通过学习、工作等手段来改变命运。

Large amount of qualified labor force is needed for large-scale industrial manufacture. However, to achieve this purpose, India must eliminate the influence of the caste system thoroughly, allow the low caste and people of a lower social status to climb the social ladder, and enable them to change their fate by study and working and other means.

只是,当阶级藩篱被打破,印度人民有了获得美好生活的欲望和可能后,使人安贫乐道,愿以今生苦难换的来世幸福的印度教教义,也就丧失了它的社会根基,其结果就是被拜金主义所取代。

When the class barrier is broken, Indians can have the desire to gain a good life possibly, the people can be contending with poverty, and the doctrine of Hinduism loses its social foundation, and is replaced by worshipping money.

在拜金主义的驱使下,印度的低种姓和贱民们,终将被卷入工业化的滚滚洪流中。但与此同时,强征土地、房屋拆迁、环境污染、职业病、过低薪酬、长时间劳作,这些工业化过程中(尤其是中前期)无法消除的负面影响也会随之而来,进而引发民众的群体性愤怒和抗争。

Driven by money, the low caste and the people of a lower social status in India finally become involved in the industrialized flood current. However, at the same time, the indelible adverse impact during the industrialization has an impact on (especially in the early and middle stages) impressing of lands, house removal, environment pollution, occupational disease, low wages and long-time labor, thus triggering people’s anger and resistance accordingly.

对印度政府而言,压制民众的不满是必须的,否则工业化无法实现。但在现代民主制度的架构下,为选票所裹胁的政客,不可能实现这一目的。要想解开这一困局,印度唯一的办法就是改革政治制度,实行中央集权。

For the Indian government, it is a necessity to suppress the public’s dissatisfaction; else, the industrialization cannot be recognized. But under the framework of modern democratic system, the politicians who are elected by votes fail to make this purpose come true. If they want to unfasten this dilemma, the only method is to reform the political system and realize the centralization.

政改的内战风险 Civil war risk of political reform

中央集权的过程,必然引发政治势力的重新洗牌。考虑到印度的政治架构,没有任何一方政治势力,能够让其他对手放手退出。要想解决这一难题,印度只有两条 路可选:要么政治势力间直接发起内战,用武力消灭其他势力;要么跳出派系争斗,放下身段争取占人口绝大多数的低种姓和贱民的铁心拥护,通过壮大基本盘的方 式,逼迫保守势力出局。

The process of authority centralization inevitably triggers the reshuffle of the political power. In consideration of the political framework of India, no other political power can give in to other rivals. India only has two ways for resolving this problem: either the political power directly or indirectly launch civil war and wipes out other power by force, or jump out from the factions struggle, and strives for the heartfelt supports of the low caste and people of the lower social status who occupy the vast majority of population, and then compel the conservative force to move out by expansion of basic power.

咋一看,派系内战并非好的选择。但如果采用第二种方式,则意味着这一政治势力站到了下层阶级的立场上,一旦其掌权,必然会剥夺掌握社会资源的上层阶级的利益,进而会招到激烈反对。鉴于利益的不可调和性,双方的冲突必将愈演愈烈。如此一来,派系内战虽可避免,阶级战争却极有可能发生。(现实中的案例,则是 印度毛派武装与政府之间的冲突。一旦大规模工业化启动,毛派将获得广泛的社会基础)

At a first glance, it is not a good choice for civil war among the factions. But if the second way is adopted, it means that this political power will stand by the lower class. Once the power is grasped, they must deprive the interest of the upper class who grasps the social resources, thus trigger the intensive opposition. In view of the irreconcilability of interest, both parties’ conflict must be becoming increasingly fierce. Thus the civic war among the factions may be avoided, but the class war very likely happens. (In cases of reality, the conflict is between the Indian Communist Party and the government. Once large-scale industrialization is launched, the Indian Communist Party will get extensive social foundation.)

种族对抗与宗教冲突。Race rivalry and religious conflict.

印度的人种构成大致可分为三个部分。由早期自中亚迁入的雅利安人演化而来的印度斯坦人(即印度白人);土著的达罗毗荼人(即印度黑人);以及早期由东亚流入、在东北地区占相当比例的蒙古利亚人(即黄种人)。

The race of India roughly can be divided to be three parts: Hindustanis who are evolved by Aryans who migrated from Central Asia in the early stage (that is the Indian white people); indigenous Dravidians (that is Indian black people); and Mongoloids who occupy fairly proportions in the Northeast (that is the Yellow race).

由于历史的原因,婆罗门、刹帝利两大高种姓基本由占人口少数的印度斯坦组成,占人口绝大多数的达罗毗荼人与黄种人则基本属于低种姓和贱民。

The both castes of Brahman and Kshatriya basically consist of the Hindustanis with minority of population due to the reason of history, and Hindustanis and the Yellow race with vast majority of population basically belong to the low caste and people of a lower social status.

一直到今天,印度社会的各种资源仍由高种姓的印度白人控制,而印度黑人和黄种人基本处于被统治地位。 红德智库通常情况下,这种明显不平等的社会结构必然导致种族冲突的产生。而印度在数千年的文明发展史中,却成功的避免了种族间的对抗。这不能不说是一个奇迹。

So far, various resources in Indian society are still controlled by the Indian white people with high caste, and the Indian black people and the Yellow race are in the state of being governed basically. (Red Think Tank) Under normal conditions, this unequal social structure obviously must result in the racial conflict. But in the civilization development history for thousands of years, Indians have successfully avoided rivalry amongst the races, which is a miracle.

而印度之所以能成为例外,固化阶级的种姓制度,和鼓吹放弃今生以求来世的印度教义居功至伟。(发源于印度的佛教,由于宣扬众生平等,不利于印度种族阶级 社会的稳定,逐渐在当地走向消亡)一旦这二者被清除,处于社会中下层的达罗毗荼人和黄种人的种族意识将被激活,并在拜金主义的诱惑下,对占据社会资源的印度斯坦人产生种族仇恨,肤色的不同更让这种冲突加倍激化。而随着大规模工业化的展开,主要的印度斯坦人构成的资本家,与主要由达罗毗荼人以及黄种人构成的 工人阶级之间的冲突将愈演愈烈。阶级矛盾和种族矛盾合二为一后所迸发出的力量,足以将印度搅的天翻地覆!

Nevertheless, the reason why Indians can be an exception is because the caste system of solidified class and the doctrine of Hinduism which is advocated and claimed highly of (it originates from the Buddhism in India, but it gradually dies out locally because the advocacy of life equal goes against the social stability of Indian race class). Once both are eliminated, the racial consciousness of the Dravidians and the Yellow people who are in the lower class in the society will be activated, and generate racial hatred toward the Hindustanis who occupy the social resources after tempted by money worship, the difference of skin color even intensifies this conflict. However, with the development of large-scale industrialization, the conflict between the capitalists who are formed by the Hindustanis primarily and the working class who is mainly formed by the Dravidians and the Yellow people will become increasingly fierce. The power that combined and generated by the class contradiction and ethnic conflict will overturn Indian enough.

宗教矛盾也是印度政治改革潜在威胁。印度境内有总数多达一亿的穆斯林。他们独立于印度教体系之外,但与黄种人和达罗毗荼人一样,处于社会的中下阶级。虽 然当下,印度教的强大力量足以压制占人口少数的穆斯林。但如果印度教瓦解,印度社会陷入纷争,穆斯林为争取自身权益,也不可避免的会卷入其中,进而加深印 度的混乱。

This religious conflict is also a potential threat for India’s political reform. In the territory of India, there are one hundred million Muslims. They are independent out from the Hinduism system, but same as the Yellow people and Dravidians, they are in the lower and middle classes in the society. Although, currently, the strong power of Hinduism is enough to suppress the Muslims with minority population, Indian society will be caught in disputes if Hinduism collapses, and Muslims will revolve in it inevitably, causing chaos in India because Muslims are striving for their own rights and interests.

制度、阶级、种族、宗教,多种因素交织在一起,使印度的工业化道路异常艰难,稍有不慎,便有跌入深渊的危险。

Because multiple elements are interlaced together, such as system, class, race and religion, the industrial road is becoming difficult in India, which might face deep danger even if handled slightly careless.

印度现代化的外部威胁 External threat of modernization in India

巴基斯坦 Pakistan

巴基斯坦与印度的恩怨举世皆知。二者在农耕时代本为一体,后来的分裂,虽是英国故意为之,但追根溯源,却是印度与伊斯兰两大宗教乃至文明体系的冲突,以及印度河、孟加拉与恒河三大区域板块之间的地缘博弈。

The resentment between Pakistan and India is known all over the world. They were both in integrity at some point before the splitting was caused deliberately by England, tracing the source, this conflict between the Hinduism and Islamism, and even the whole civilization system, and the geographical games among the Indus River, Bangladesh and the Ganges River.

通过两次印巴战争,印度成功促成了孟加拉与巴基斯坦的分裂,但也加深了印巴之间的仇恨。而克什米尔问题,更是两国无法解开的死结。即便有朝一日印巴关系走向缓和,但历史、宗教和地缘结构上的矛盾,决定了二者间的矛盾将长期存在。

By fighting of wars between Pakistan and India, India succeeded in facilitating the splitting between Bangladesh and Pakistan, but the wars deepened the hatred between Pakistan and India. However, the issue of Kashmir is still the fast knot that cannot be undone by the both countries. Even though the relation between Pakistan and India may move toward for a relief one day, the contradictions in history, religion and geographical structure there will prevail long-term conflict between the both countries.

由于恒河板块在地缘实力上强过印度河板块,巴基斯坦注定在这场对抗中处于下风。但如果印度出现内乱,巴基斯坦自然不会放过报仇雪恨的机会。

In the geographical strength, since the Ganges River is stronger than the Indus River, Pakistan is bound to be in downwind in this rivalry. But if India has civil strife, Pakistan will naturally seize the opportunity of paying off old scores.

通过前文可知,由于内部的结构性矛盾,印度现代化改革一旦启动,混乱几乎难以避免,失控的可能性也十分之大。一旦这种情况发生,巴基斯坦肯定会趁火打劫 (具体做法则是抢夺印控克什米尔,并对印度境内的穆斯林提供支持),这对印度而言犹如火上浇油,极有可能引发整体性崩盘。

As we known above, once India’s modern reform is launched, the chaos is almost hard to avoid and uncontrollable with great possibilities due to the internal structural contradiction. Once this happens, Pakistan must fish in troubled waters (the specific practice is to loot and control Kashmir, and provide supports for the Muslim in the territory of India), which seems to pour oil on the flames for India, and it very likely to trigger the overall collapse.

稳定的外部环境,是推行改革的必要条件。但巴基斯坦的存在,使印度很难实现这一目标。消灭巴基斯坦固然是个办法,但国际政治秩序的制约,巴基斯坦本身的实力,以及中国与伊斯兰世界两大势力的支持,使印度又无法将其彻底收服。

A stable external environment is a necessary condition for carrying out the reform. But the existence of Pakistan makes India hard to realize this goal. It is certainly a good idea to wipe out Pakistan, but the restriction of political orders internationally, and Pakistan’s strength and the supporters of China and Islamic world make India fail to subdue it thoroughly.

有这样一个嚼不烂、拉不拢、摆不脱、灭不掉的死敌身居其侧,更增加了印度现代化改革的难度。

So there is a tough mortal enemy nearby, which even increase the difficulty of modern reform in India.

中国 China

通过《小姐身子丫鬟命》一文的分析,我们已经知道:中国是支持印度的大国梦的。但中国的这种支持,是出于自身利益的考虑,希望强大后的印度,分担其崛起中的压力,并终结美国的印度洋霸权。可要是印度烂泥扶不上墙,中国的立场便会发生根本性变化。

By the analysis on ‘A Miss with Fate of Servant A Girl’, we have known that: China supports the great dream of India. But such a support is for the consideration of self-interest, it hopes that India, with strong power, can share the pressure of rising sharply, and finally end the hegemony of America in the Indian Ocean. However, if India fails, China’s standpoint will change essentially.

尽管中国会支持印度现代化进程,但如果这一进程最终失败,中国借印逐美的战略构想也就成了镜花水月。在这种情况下,中国为了维护在印度洋区域的利益,便只剩下亲自出马一途。

Even if China will support the progress of the modernization of India, if this process fails eventually, China will be an illusion in this strategic conception. Under this circumstance, to maintain the interest in the Indian Ocean, China only attends to the matter personally.

由于本土与印度洋相隔万里,中国要想在印度洋站稳脚跟(尤其是取得对美战略优势),则必须在区域内寻找一个合适的地缘板块作为支撑。从地理环境和地缘关系考虑,控制孟加拉湾的孟加拉板块无疑是最合适的。

Because there are ten thousands miles between the mainland and the Indian Ocean, China should find a proper geographical plate as the support in the region if we want to stand firmly in the Indian Ocean (especially obtain the strategic advantage with regard to America). In consideration of geographical environment and geographical relationship, undoubtedly, it will be the most appropriate if control on the Bangladesh is taken care of by the Bay of Bengal.

鉴于中国与孟加拉在海路上实在过于遥远。为增强对该地区的地缘影响力,中国必须打通二者间的陆上通道,并确保对此通道的控制。基于此战略,接连孟加拉与云贵高原的印度东北地区将成为中国的目标。

In view that China is too far away from Bangladesh in the sea route. To reinforce the geographical influence in this region, China must break through the land channel between them, and make sure the control to this channel. Based upon this strategy, China’s goal is to connect Bangladesh and India’s northeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.

从地缘结构上看,东北地区几乎是印度的一块飞地(仅有一条靠近喜马拉雅山脉的西里古里走廊与北印度连接),与云南地缘关系却相对紧密,东亚流入的黄种人在当地占有相当比例,这些因素,导致当地分离倾向向来严重。这也为中国的图谋创造了条件。

Seen from the geographical structure, the northeast almost is another plate for India (only the Siliguri Corridor that closes to the Himalayas connects to the Northern India), however, it is relatively closer to Yunnan in geographical relationship. The Yellow people who emigrated from the East Asia occupy a fairly portion locally. These factors result in serious local separation creating the condition for China’s strategy.

当然,如果印度作为一个正常的整体存在,中国是不敢打东北地区主意的(也没这个必要)。但如果印度陷入内乱,中国就再也不用顾忌它的想法了。

Of course, if India exists in normal integrity, China dare not think about the northeast (there is no necessity). But, if India is caught in the civil strife, China will not scruple its thinking any more.

在印度内乱的情况下,得到中国支持的东北地区,独立几乎是无法阻止的。而独立之后,为了抵御印度的压力,新政府必然会倒向中国。

Under the condition of civil strife in India, as for the northeast where they can get China’s support, the independence cannot be stopped almost. However, after the independence, the new government must stand by China to withstand India’s pressure.

东北地区的独立,对印度的打击是灾难性的。首先,中国会收复藏南,并将势力范围扩展至孟加拉湾(在这种形势下,除了倒向中国,孟加拉国别无选择)。同时中国还会对印采取全方位压制:

The independence in the northeast is disastrous to strike India. Firstly, China will recapture the southern Tibet, and expand the influence sphere to the Bay of Bengal (under this situation, except for standing by China, Bangladesh has no ideas). Meanwhile, China will suppress India comprehensively

出于控制孟加拉湾和马六甲的考虑,中国有可能占领安达曼群岛;为防止印度东山再起,中国极有可能会控制恒河口的加尔各答,帮助尼泊尔、不丹摆脱印度控制,甚至推动锡金复国,并对巴基斯坦的攻略予以支持,从而形成对印度的全方位战略压制。

In consideration of controlling the Bay of Bengal and Malacca, China may occupy Andaman Islands; to prevent Indian’s comeback, China very likely control Calcutta in the Ganges River, and help Nepal and Bhutan to get rid of Indian’s control, even drive Sikkim to recover the country, and support Pakistan’s strategy, thus form the comprehensive strategic suppressing on India.

美国 America

美国也会加入对印度的争夺。

America also will join in the fighting for India.

美国不可能允许中国势力进入南亚。但鉴于其在该地区的影响力源自海上(以中印度洋的迪戈加西亚岛为基地),对由内陆发动的中国战略有心无力。

American impossibly allows China’s strength to enter South Asia. But in view that the influence of this region comes from the sea (take the Diego Garcia of the Indian Ocean as the base), it has a heart but no strength to the Chinese strategy that launched toward the mainland.

但美国也不可能对作壁上观。将孟加拉板块划入势力范围后的中国,将取得压倒性的对美战略优势(作为印度洋基地的迪亚加戈西岛面积不过二十六平方公里,用 以压制一般国家尚可,当对手是中国这种重量级国家时,支撑博弈的战略空间严重不足)。在这种情况下,美国无论愿意与否,只能趁着印度混乱,也寻找一个合适 的地缘板块,扶植独立的亲美政权,以应对中国的威胁。(综合各方面考虑,辐射阿拉伯海的孟买——古吉拉特板块或是最合适的选择)。如此一来,印度将彻底分 裂,沦为中美等大国势力的竞技场。

However, America will not be an onlooker. After China wipes the Bangladesh plate in the influence sphere, China will take the overwhelming strategic advantage (the area of the Diego Garcia of the Indian Ocean is only twenty six square kilometers, which can suppress ordinary countries, however, the strategy space of supporting the game is not enough seriously when the rival is China). Under this circumstance, whether America is willing or not, it only seeks for a proper geographical plate with the opportunity of chaos in India, and then fosters the independent pro-American regime, so as to tackle with the threat from China. (After consider from various aspects, it may be the best choice to radiate Bombay in Arabian Sea – Gujarat plate). So India will split thoroughly, and become the arena of China and America and other countries with great power.

如果印度不乱,这种情况当然不会发生。但如果印度陷入内乱,它将无力阻止这一切,只能任人宰割。

If India isn’t in chaos, this condition will not happen absolutely. But in case India is caught in the civil strife, India has no idea how to stop it, only at other’s service.

印度当然明白内乱的后果。但鉴于自身复杂的国情,它又无法确保内乱不会在现代化的过程中发生。在这种左右为难下,印度的现代化改革只能长期流于形式。能否找到一条真正的和平发展之路,将是事关这个文明古国延续与存亡。

India understands the result of the civil strife of course. But in view of the complicated national condition, India cannot make sure that the civil strife doesn’t happen in the modernization process. Under this dilemma, India’s modernization reform only shows as a form for a long term. It concerns to this ancient civilization’s continuity and survival and downfall whether a real peaceful and developing road can be found or not.

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