Journal : Global Times (Chinese) Date : Author : NA Page No. : 7
URL : http://www.jdqu.com/read-767291-7.html

拿下印度高铁,日本“雪耻之战”?

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雪耻之战!日本知名的《东洋经济周刊》在19日一期用这样的词来评论日本与印度在高铁项目上达成的协议。一时间,日本仿佛已全面开启同中国在亚洲国家高铁等基建方面的对抗。日本经济评论家樋泉克夫更是认为,日中在亚洲国家基础设施上的竞争是绝对不能谦让的至上命题。日本的新干线、中国的高铁,都是各自国家装备制造业的名片,两国均有意愿对外推广,特别是在亚洲这个最大最有发展前景的市场,基础设施建设已成为拉动经济的主要动力。在日本的调查,让笔者感到,日本争夺亚洲基建市场的迫切心情可以理解,但却忽视了与中国的合作。

Revenge Battle” was the word used by Japan’s well-known weekly magazine, “Toyo Keizai”, on December 19 to comment on the Japan-India high-speed rail project agreement. For a while, Japan seems to have been in competition with China’s high-speed rail and other infrastructure projects in Asia. Hizumi Katsuo a Japanese economy commentator considers the dictum in competition in Asian countries; infrastructure to be “humility is not the supreme virtue”. Japan’s “Shinkansen” and China’s high-speed both have their own national equipment manufacturing industry and both countries promote their industry in foreign countries —especially in Asia, which is the largest and most promising market with infrastructure the main driving force of the economy. A survey in Japan shows that Japan is competing for Asian infrastructure markets but ignores its cooperation with China.

焦虑来自日本出口战略调整

Anxiety comes from Japan’s export strategy adjustment

日印两国就印度首个高铁建设项目采用日本的新干线方式达成协议后,在印度做过3年特派员的日本商务新闻网J-CAST总裁蜷川真夫对笔者说,过去和印度人约见面时间,对方迟到几个小时属于正常。有了日本的高铁后,印度人也会按分按秒准时行动了。

After Japan and India reached an agreement on using Japan’s Shinkansen technology in India’s first high-speed railway construction project, Japan Business News J-CAST president, who has also worked for three years in India as Special Commissioner, told this reporter that it it very common for Indian people not to be punctual but with Japans high speed rail, Indians might also be on time.

日本《朝日新闻》12日以一种乘胜追击的语态报道说:经济产业省为了能在印度等新兴国家获得铁路、发电厂等基础设施项目,准备用5年时间为当地培养6000名人才。日本今后去投标时,让他们对日本的铁路、发电厂有所了解。据日本《每日新闻》报道,日本还准备参与美国、泰国、马来西亚新加坡的主要高铁项目。而此前在和中国企业竞争印尼高铁项目时的失利让日本人大为震惊,认为煮熟的鸭子飞到了中国企业的餐盘里。

On December 12, Japan, Asahi Shimbun reported that the “Ministry of Economy is ready to develop 6000 local talents for 5 years in order to obtain railways, power plants and other infrastructure projects in India and other emerging countries, Japans bidding in the future is to let them understand Japanese railway and power plants technology.” According to Japan’s Daily News report, Japanese are also ready to participate in the main high-speed rail projects in United States, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Previously, the defeat in Indonesia’s high-speed rail project competition at the hands of Chinese enterprises shocked the Japanese people, who thought that the “cooked ducks” would fly into their enterprise’s plate.

日本媒体用雪耻一词来评述日方拿下印度铁路项目,让人感觉有些小题大做,但也从一个侧面反映了日本的焦虑。在东京,一位多年专注社会基础设施报道的日本同行见到笔者时说:没有想到,在日本最期待的3个拓展项目上,现在遇到了中国这个劲敌。这位日本朋友提的3个拓展项目,实际上是指日本对外出口的内容这些年发生重大变化——国家把出口重点从家电、汽车向发电站(能源)、铁路(交通)、医疗健康产业调整,今后日本能赚钱的产业大致就在这几个领域。此时在铁路建设方面遭遇中国劲敌,日本不能不拼命。

Japanese media use the word “revenge” to comment on the Japanese winning the Indian Railways project, leading some people feel a sense of victory, but this is also a reflection of Japanese anxiety. In Tokyo, Japanese counterparts working on infrastructure for years told this reporter, “I never expected that China would rival Japan in these three expansion projects, referring to Japan’s foreign exports which have changed significantly over the years. Japan focuses on exports of household electric appliances, automobiles, power plants (energy), railway (traffic) and healthcare industry. Japan’s industrial future lies in these areas. At present, the Japanese railway construction industry has suffered at the hands of its Chinese rival.

10月失去在印尼建设高铁的机会,对日本来说,特别是国家出口方向刚出现转变的时候,败北就被夸大到奇耻大辱的高度。日本《读卖新闻》107日发表社论说:铁路事业是世界需求中最有希望的一部分,今后该在马来西亚、美国获得标的。本次败北应让日本尽快重新确定出口战略。

For Japan, the lost opportunity in October of building the high-speed rail in Indonesia was an”insult” of their national export. Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun editorial on October 7 said that railways are one of the most promising industries in the world. There are projects to be bagged in Malaysia and the United States in the future. This defeat led to a re-evaluation of their export strategy.

《日本经济新闻》近日展望2020

“Japanese Economic News” outlook 2020

日本三大出口领域为能源、交通及医疗。具体估算为,2020年,日本在发电厂、能源设备等方面的出口达到每年9万亿日元,而2010年相关统计不到4万亿日元。在包括铁路、港口建设在内的交通领域,2010年日本对外出口约0.2万亿日元,但到了2020年,预期实现6万亿日元。医疗及农业方面的出口2020年预期完成近5万亿日元的目标。

Japan’s three major export sectors are energy, transportation and medical care. In 2020 a specific estimate of Japan’s exports of power plants, energy equipment etc was 9 trillion yen, while the 2010 annual statistic was less than 4 trillion yen. in 2010, Japan exported about 0.2 trillion yen in the transport sector (including the rail and port construction). By 2020, it is expected to achieve 6 trillion yen. Medical and agricultural exports in 2020 are expected to reach the target of nearly 5 trillion yen.

与传统出口优势相比,能把问题说得更为清楚。日本是包括家电在内的电子机械产品出口大国,2006年日本出口电子机械产品为11万亿日元,但到了2014年减少到不足7万亿日元,估计2015年会进一步减少。2006年汽车出口为16.6万亿日元,但最近两年连续下跌,在日元贬值的情况下,短期内大幅增加汽车出口的可能性也不太大。

Compared with their traditional export advantage, they are able to put the issue more clearly. Japan’s exports to major economies includes electronic and mechanical products and home appliances. In 2006, Japan’s exports of electronic machinery products were 11 trillion yen but in 2014 they fell to less than 7 trillion yen. In 2015, it was estimated that it would reduce further. In 2006, auto exports were about 16.6 trillion yen, but the last two years witnessed a continuous decline of exports, and although depreciation of the yen resulted in an increase in the value of automobile exports, the increase was not large.

印尼教训,日本没反思到位

Inadequate reflection on “lesson from Indonesia”

众所周知,日本高铁技术先进,运行也很安全。失去印尼的高铁项目,让日本从过去盲目相信本国技术先进,开始变得谨慎,他们在考虑这样一个问题:为什么日本在高铁项目上败给了中国?绝大多数日本媒体认为,日本技术强调的是高质量,如果打价格战,日本并不是中国的对手。

As far as we know Japanese high-speed rail technology is very advanced and safe. Japanese blindly believed in their advanced technology but the loss of the high-speed rail project in Indonesia has made them cautious. As a result they are carefully pondering over the question: Why did Japan lose the high-speed rail project to China? The vast majority of Japanese media stresses that Japanese technology is of high quality, but if it comes to a price war, Japan is nowhere near China.

笔者在日本接触过不少高铁方面的运营企业、设备制造企业,此前谈及印尼高铁项目时,最明显的感觉是日本人对拿下印尼高铁胸有成竹。曾有一家生产高铁车辆设备的厂家,其技术人员对欧洲、亚洲的车辆均做过大量的调查,在和笔者说到印尼项目时如数家珍,无论是说日本的制造技术,还是谈日本与印尼当地的关系都很自信。首先向印尼提出建造高铁的就是日本。2008年中国高铁建设步入正轨时,日本看到深入中国市场基本无望,就开始转战印尼,向印尼提出建造高铁的建议。常年研究亚洲经济的福岛大学佐野教授对笔者说:印尼是与日本关系非常紧密的国家,至少在两国关系上,印尼与日本更近。

In Japan, this reporter came into contact with many high speed rail operators and equipment manufacturing enterprises. Earlier, in discussions on high-speed rail project in Indonesia, most felt that Japanese high-speed rail will win in Indonesia. There was a production of high-speed rail vehicle equipment manufacturers; their technical staff in Europe, Asia did a lot of investigation of the vehicles.When it comes to the notorious Indonesia project, locals were very confident, whether it was Japan’s manufacturing technology or the relationship between Japan and Indonesia. Japan was the first to propose the construction of high-speed rail. In 2008, China’s high-speed railway construction was on the right track, Japan tried hard to enter the Chinese market, but it was hopeless. Then they moved to Indonesia and put forward a proposal to build a high-speed rail in Indonesia. Fukushima University Asian Economy professor Sano told the reporter that “Indonesia is in very close relationship with Japan; at least in bilateral relations, Indonesia and Japan are very close.”

从媒体报道的造价看,日本最初的报价也相当低,就是希望自己中标。直到今年93日,印尼政府宣布重新评价中日两国提交的报价单、项目内容时,日本似乎还没有太大的危机感,自认为非己莫属。后来的进展,让日本几乎是自动放弃了对印尼高铁的再度投标。按《日本经济新闻》的分析,日本向印尼提出让政府做低息贷款的债务保证,而印尼希望在现任总统任期内完工。两者意见相左,日本国际协力银行专务董事前田匡史在得知这两个难以解决的矛盾后说:日本不可能答应印尼的全部条件。

According to media coverage, the Japanese initially offered a very low price, hoping that they will get the bid. Until September 3 this year, when the Indonesian government announced re-evaluation of quotations submitted by China and Japan and the project content, Japan did not seem to have a sense of crisis. Then Japan almost automatically abandoned the re-bid for Indonesia’s high speed rail project. According to the Japanese economic news analysis, Japan proposed to let the government ensure the low interest loan debt to Indonesia, while Indonesia hoped that the project would be completed within the current Presidential term. Japan International Cooperation Bank Managing Director Mr Maeda said that it is very difficult to solve the contradiction bnetween two sides. He further said: “Japan cannot agree with all conditions in Indonesia.”

一位熟悉印尼的日本记者私下对笔者说:中国最终获得印尼高铁的原因,首先在于中国与当地企业合资成立了新企业,由企业直接负责高铁的建设。其次,中国不仅有建设高铁的技术,而且能满足印尼提出的需求。日本贸易振兴机构(JETRO)的一位高层人士也向笔者透露:不管政府态度如何,不少日本企业在中国印尼项目上,是能够获利的,也能把技术等转让给中国,最后出口到印尼。但类似这些对中国最终获得印尼高铁项目的客观分析,在日本媒体上几乎找不到。多数日本媒体总结印尼高铁项目失利的教训时,到现在还认为是日本没有大把大把花钱。有的还说,印尼高铁项目败给了中国,是因为中国以政府的方式推行高铁,日本走的是企业自力更生的路线。

A Japanese reporter familiar with Indonesia secretly mentioned that “the reason behind China’s successful bid of the high-speed rail project is that China had established a joint venture with new local enterprises and those companies are directly responsible for high-speed rail construction in Indonesia. Secondly, China is not only constructing high-speed rail, but also will fulfil the needs of Indonesia. A senior member of Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) also revealed to this reporter “No matter what the government’s attitude, a lot of Japanese companies in China’s Indonesia project are going to profit, and also transfer technology to China and finally export it to Indonesia.” But similar to the objective analyses of Chinese high-speed rail in Indonesia the Japanese media can hardly find anything wrong. While most of Japanese media assesses the high-speed rail project in Indonesia is to be a defeat, some now also believe that Japan has not wasted “a lot a lot of money.” And also consider that Japan will lose lots of money.Some also said that loss of the high-speed rail project in Indonesia to China is because the Chinese government’s approach to implementation of high-speed railway but Japan was taking the business route of self-reliance.

亚洲基建,日没必要单打独斗

Japan should not go it alone in Asian Infrastructure

和造价相比,印度方面更重视的是安全性及准点率问题,日本这方面的技术获得了正当的评价。日本国土交通省的高官这样评价日印达成的新干线协议。其实印度高铁选用日本技术,最大的意义在于,新干线技术在过去50年中,除中国台湾引进一部分外,并没有出口到其他国家和地区,现在印度算是要正式全面引进新干线技术,对日本来说是零的突破。等印度正式决定引进新干线技术时,日本的东日本旅客铁道(JR东日本)、川崎重工业、日立制作所将成立日本企业联合体,共同投标。在日本舆论看来,首相等政府高官推销,国家机关给资金支持,民间企业合为一体共同推进,这次日本企业在印度的中标该是一只真的煮熟了的鸭子

“Compared to the cost, India pays more attention to safety and punctuality aspects. Japan obtained a proper evaluation”, Japan’s Ministry of land and transportation officials commented on Shinkansen agreement between Japan and India. In fact, what is most significant about India using Japanese  high-speed rail technology, is that Shinkansen technology was not exported to other countries for the past 50 years, except for China and Taiwan. It has now been introduced  in India formally and comprehensively. This is a big “breakthrough”. With India formally deciding to introduce Shinkansen technology, Japan’s East Japan Railway (JR East Japan), Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Hitachi Japan will set up an industrial complex for bidding jointly. In Japan, the Prime Minister, public opinion and other senior government officials are promoting and giving financial support to the national authorities and the private sector to jointly promote Japanese companies in India and help them win a “truly cooked duck.”

安倍政府到处强调日本制造的高质量,言外之意是中国只有低价格。其实,日本在向相关国家推销新干线及发电厂的时候,一点也不吝啬。2015年日本追加数亿日元的预算,用以邀请国外2000名高铁及火力发电站的专家、企业家来日本考察,增加对日本企业和相关技术的好感和信任。不光请进来,经产省还选择走出去,向新兴国家派遣技术专家去推广日本技术。有经产省官员对《朝日新闻》记者说,从2015年开始要培养约4000人,在金钱及速度上,日本不仅会有很大改进,在人员培训上也会发挥日本的强项。培养大量的亲日派技术专家、企业家后,今后日本在亚洲国家推进铁路等基础设施建设时便多了一股重要的支持力量。

Abes government emphasizes the high quality of Japanese products and implies that “China has only a low price.” In fact, while promoting the Japanese Shinkansen and power plants technology to other countries, Japan is not stingy. In 2015 there is additional budget of hundreds millions of Japanese yen to invite foreign experts and high-speed thermal power station technologies, and entrepreneurs to examine Japanese companies and increase goodwill and trust in Japan. Not only “inviting”, the Ministry also choose to “go out” and send technical experts to developing countries to promote Japanese technology. Japans Ministry of Economy officials told “Asahi Shimbun” reporters that from 2015 Japan, will train about 4,000 people. “The Japanese will not only make a great improvement in terms of money and speed, but also play a strong role in training of personnel”. After training a large number of pro-Japanese technical experts and entrepreneurs, Japan will promote construction of railways and other infrastructure in Asian countries. That will be more than an important supporting force in the future.

其实,亚洲国家在社会基础设施方面的需求非常大。日本主导的亚洲开发银行,对2010年到2020年的亚洲各国社会基础设施的建设规模有一个大致推算,8万亿美元是亚开行得出的数字。这不是一个国家能垄断的业务,如果日本过分地在亚洲基础设施建设上强调与中国竞争,并不具有实际意义。

In fact, there is a large demand for sociall infrastructure in Asian countries. Japan led the Asian Development Bank in the scale of construction in 2010 to 2020. The social infrastructure demand in Asian countries is estimated to be more than 8 trillion dollars.This is not a monopoly of any one country. If Japan place too much emphasis on competition with China in Asian infrastructure construction, then it not have any practical significance.

安倍要在亚洲发起与中国的全面竞争,撇去日本国力与中国比一天天要弱下去不说,光看亚洲基础设施的建设规模,比如日印高铁8年也就150亿美元而已,和亚开行说的平均每年8000亿美元根本不在一个数量级上。一位将要去印尼工作的日本政府官员,在和笔者谈到印尼、印度高铁项目时,说出了一句与安倍内阁多少有些不同的内心话:日本与中国,该在亚洲合作。

Abe’s launch of comprehensive competition with China in Asia resulted in the weakening of the Japan’s yen (compared to China). Just look at the size of the Asian infrastructure construction: e.g. high-speed rail cooperation between Japan and India alone costs $ 15 billion over just eight years. Asia Development Bank said that in Asia, it estimates average business of more than $ 800 billion p.a. A Japanese government official who is to go to work in Indonesia discussed high speed rail project of India and Indonesia with this reporter. He came out with the opinion of Japanese PM Abe’s cabinet in somewhat different words, “Japan and China should cooperate in Asia.”

日本一家商社的副总也对笔者说:我们在缅甸的工业园区只有两平方公里,如果和中国合作的话,完全可以做成10平方公里的大工业园区。这表明,在一些日本政商人士看来,无论是亚洲基础设施建设方面的规模还是速度,日本单打独斗的实力都毕竟有限,而日中合作可以把事业做得更大。

Vice president of a Japanese trading company also told this reporter, ”Our industrial park in Burma is only two square kilometres; if we cooperate with China, we can make it 10 square kilometres”. This suggests that some Japanese government and business people view the scale of Asian infrastructure development to be limited if dependent on the speed the strength of Japan alone, but one that can be made larger through Sino-Japanese cooperation.

 

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